Evolutionary path and driving forces of inter-industry transfer of CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from structural path and decomposition analysis.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are currently a hot topic of global concern. It is of great significance for reducing CO2 emissions to fully understand the transfer pattern of CO2 emissions among industries and the key factors affecting CO2 emissions. This paper uses the structural path analysis model to explore deeply the main paths of inter-industry transfer of CO2 emissions in China from 2002 to 2017 and applies the structural path decomposition model to analyze the main factors affecting CO2 emissions in specific paths from the perspectives of CO2 emission intensity, intermediate product input structure, final demand structure, per capita final demand, and population size. The results show that: (1) China's CO2 emissions increased from 3500.41 million tons (Mt) in 2002 to 9475.66Mt in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 6.86%. The growth rate of China's CO2 emissions slowed down after 2012. (2) Non-metallic mineral industry\electricity industry\metal products industry→(intermediate sector)→investment demand and electricity industry→(intermediate sector)→consumption demand are two types of key paths that affect China's CO2 emissions, and these paths remain basically unchanged during the study period. (3) The CO2 emission intensity effect is the main factor in restraining the growth of emissions, and the per capita final demand effect and intermediate product structure effect are the main promoting factors. The effect of driving factors on different industrial paths is different, and the offsetting effect of the driving factor in different paths may lead to the insignificant effect of this factor in the overall decomposition. To effectively reduce CO2 emissions, China should focus on specific industrial paths and implement upstream and downstream comprehensive governance to achieve a low-carbon industrial chain throughout the whole process.