Umedjon Ibragimov1, Stephanie Beane2, Samuel R Friedman3, Barbara Tempalski4, Leslie D Williams5, Sarah McKetta6, Adaora A Adimora7, Gina M Wingood8, Ron D Stall9, H Irene Hall10, Anna Satcher Johnson10, Hannah L F Cooper2. 1. Department of Behavioral, Social and Health Education Sciences, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA. Electronic address: umed.ibragimov@emory.edu. 2. Department of Behavioral, Social and Health Education Sciences, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA. 3. Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York. 4. National Development and Research Institutes Inc, New York, NY. 5. Division of Community Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago. 6. Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY. 7. Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill; Division of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill. 8. Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY. 9. Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences and Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA. 10. Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To assess cross-population linkages in HIV/AIDS epidemics, we tested the hypothesis that the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases among Black people who inject drugs (PWID) was positively related to the natural log of the rate of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals in 84 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2008-2016. METHODS: We estimated a multilevel model centering the time-varying continuous exposures at baseline between the independent (Black PWID AIDS rates) and dependent (HIV diagnoses rate among Black heterosexuals) variables. RESULTS: At MSA level, baseline (standardized β = 0.12) Black PWID AIDS rates and change in these rates over time (standardized β = 0.11) were positively associated with the log of new HIV diagnoses rates among Black heterosexuals. Thus, MSAs with Black PWID AIDS rates that were 1 standard deviation= higher at baseline also had rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals that were 10.3% higher. A 1 standard deviation increase in independent variable over time corresponded to a 7.8% increase in dependent variable. CONCLUSIONS: Black PWID AIDS rates may predict HIV rates among non-PWID Black heterosexuals. Effective HIV programming may be predicated, in part, on addressing intertwining of HIV epidemics across populations.
PURPOSE: To assess cross-population linkages in HIV/AIDS epidemics, we tested the hypothesis that the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases among Black people who inject drugs (PWID) was positively related to the natural log of the rate of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals in 84 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2008-2016. METHODS: We estimated a multilevel model centering the time-varying continuous exposures at baseline between the independent (Black PWID AIDS rates) and dependent (HIV diagnoses rate among Black heterosexuals) variables. RESULTS: At MSA level, baseline (standardized β = 0.12) Black PWID AIDS rates and change in these rates over time (standardized β = 0.11) were positively associated with the log of new HIV diagnoses rates among Black heterosexuals. Thus, MSAs with Black PWID AIDS rates that were 1 standard deviation= higher at baseline also had rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections among Black non-PWID heterosexuals that were 10.3% higher. A 1 standard deviation increase in independent variable over time corresponded to a 7.8% increase in dependent variable. CONCLUSIONS: Black PWID AIDS rates may predict HIV rates among non-PWID Black heterosexuals. Effective HIV programming may be predicated, in part, on addressing intertwining of HIV epidemics across populations.
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