| Literature DB >> 33064783 |
Inaki Tirados1, Andrew Hope1, Richard Selby1, Fabrice Mpembele2, Erick Mwamba Miaka2, Marleen Boelaert3, Mike J Lehane1, Steve J Torr1, Michelle C Stanton1,4.
Abstract
Over the past 20 years there has been a >95% reduction in the number of Gambian Human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) cases reported globally, largely as a result of large-scale active screening and treatment programmes. There are however still foci where the disease persists, particularly in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Additional control efforts such as tsetse control using Tiny Targets may therefore be required to achieve g-HAT elimination goals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of Tiny Targets within DRC. In 2015-2017, pre- and post-intervention tsetse abundance data were collected from 1,234 locations across three neighbouring Health Zones (Yasa Bonga, Mosango, Masi Manimba). Remotely sensed dry season data were combined with pre-intervention tsetse presence/absence data from 332 locations within a species distribution modelling framework to produce a habitat suitability map. The impact of Tiny Targets on the tsetse population was then evaluated by fitting a generalised linear mixed model to the relative fly abundance data collected from 889 post-intervention monitoring sites within Yasa Bonga, with habitat suitability, proximity to the intervention and intervention duration as covariates. Immediately following the introduction of the intervention, we observe a dramatic reduction in fly catches by > 85% (pre-intervention: 0.78 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.676-0.900; 3 month post-intervention: 0.11 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.070-0.153) which is sustained throughout the study period. Declines in catches were negatively associated with proximity to Tiny Targets, and while habitat suitability is positively associated with abundance its influence is reduced in the presence of the intervention. This study adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the impact of Tiny Targets on tsetse across a range of ecological settings, and further characterises the factors which modify its impact. The habitat suitability maps have the potential to guide the expansion of tsetse control activities in this area.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 33064783 PMCID: PMC7608941 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008270
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS Negl Trop Dis ISSN: 1935-2727
Fig 1Locations of the 1,234 tsetse monitoring sites at which tsetse flies were collected between January 2015 –December 2017.
Pre-intervention sites i.e. sites where data were collected prior to or unaffected by the intervention are triangles colour-coded by year of collection. Monitoring sites i.e. sites sampled immediately prior to the intervention, then repeatedly at regular intervals following the intervention are prepresented by circles. The river networks across which Tiny Targets have been deployed is also presented, colour-coded colour-coded according to the year in which the intervention was first introduced.
Sources of environmental risk factors under consideration.
| Source | Environmental factors | Time | Spatial resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRTM DEM | Elevation, slope, river network derived using a flow accumulation threshold of 20,000 | February 2000 | 30m |
| Sentinel 2 | Land cover classification, enhanced vegetation index | 14th July 2016 | 10m |
| Landsat 8 | Land surface temperature | Day 233 (August) 2015 and Day 342 (December) 2014 | 100m, resampled to 30m |
Summary of recorded tsetse data by intervention status and season.
Intervention status consists of three categories: (1) traps are considered unaffected by the intervention if they were deployed prior to the intervention or were placed more than 5km away from recently deployed targets, (2) traps were placed 500m-5km from a recently deployed target, (3) traps were placed <500m from a recently deployed target. Data from 2015–2017 are pooled by wet (September–May) and dry (June-August) season.
| Wet season (Sep–May) | Dry season (June-August) | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 777 | 360 | 1,137 | ||
| 1,536 | 750 | 2,286 | ||
| 248 | 248 | 496 | ||
| 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.22 | ||
| 387 | 180 | 567 | ||
| 807 | 328 | 1,135 | ||
| 107 | 140 | 247 | ||
| 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.22 | ||
| 516 | 254 | 770 | ||
| 1,033 | 498 | 1,531 | ||
| 46 | 48 | 94 | ||
| 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.06 | ||
| 1,680 | 794 | 2,474 | ||
| 3,376 | 1,576 | 4,952 | ||
| 401 | 436 | 837 | ||
| 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
Summary of the number of pre-intervention trap deployments by year and season (wet/dry).
Date from these sites were used to develop the habitat suitability maps. Unique locations refers to the number of locations where at least one trap was deployed over the three year period. Positive sites are those where at least one fly was captured during any deployment.
| Wet season (September–May) | Dry season (June-August) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 315 | 88 | 403 | |
| 292 | 177 | 469 | |
| 166 | 92 | 258 | |
| 773 | 357 | 1,130 | |
| 710 (88 positive, 12%) | 332 (65 positive, 20%) |
ROC-AUC and Brier score of the final fitted BRT and LASSO models plus the median andrange of the ROC-AUC and Brier score for the 100 cross-validated predictions.
| Brier Score | ROC-AUC | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0975 | 0.9402 | |||
| 0.1276 | 0.8089 | |||
| Median | 0.1410 | 0.7583 | ||
| Range | 0.1336–0.1491 | 0.7207–0.7843 | ||
| Median | 0.1393 | 0.7491 | ||
| Range | 0.1356–0.1575 | 0.7071–0.7727 |
Fig 2A map of habitat suitability obtained using a boosted regression tree approach.
The fly counts (flies/trap/day) of each of the 332 trap sites used to fit the model is also displayed.
Fig 3Proportion and associated 95% confidence interval of traps in which flies were present by the distance to the nearest recently deployed target.
Summaries of trap data (number of traps deployed and flies/trap/day) plus estimated dry season habitat suitability (median and interquartile range extracted from the BRT model) by distance to nearest Tiny Target.
| 0-5m | 5-10m | 10-20m | 20-500m | 500-2km | 2-5km | 5-10km | >10km | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 231 | 188 | 222 | 183 | 384 | 216 | 681 | ||
| 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.28 | 0.23 | ||
| 0.42 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | ||
| 0.28–0.50 | 0.23–0.49 | 0.21–0.45 | 0.14–0.38 | 0.09–0.17 | 0.07–0.16 | 0.08–0.20 | 0.09–0.23 |
Summary of fly data (number of traps deployed, number and percentage of traps where tsetse were present and flies/trap/day) by the number of months since the nearest target was deployed (0–2, 3–5, 6+ or pre-intervention/never) and season (wet/dry).
| Months since target deployment | N | Tsetse present | % of traps with tsetse present | Flies/trap/day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1229 | 138 | 11.2 | 0.12 | ||
| 678 | 74 | 10.9 | 0.11 | ||
| 567 | 119 | 21.0 | 0.34 | ||
| 267 | 46 | 17.2 | 0.23 | ||
| 307 | 43 | 14.0 | 0.18 | ||
| 220 | 59 | 26.8 | 0.46 | ||
| 962 | 92 | 9.6 | 0.09 | ||
| 371 | 31 | 8.4 | 0.07 | ||
| 347 | 60 | 17.3 | 0.26 |
Fig 4Flies per catch per day by observation period and intervention area, and 95% confidence intervals.
Model output (adjusted log-relative risk and corresponding 95% confidence intervals) for each component of the final selected GLMM fitted to the sentinel site data.
| Adjusted log-relative risk | 95% confidence interval | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Intervention status at baseline | Out | - | - |
| Edge | 2.0468 | -0.9337, 4.4011 | |
| In | 0.6487 | -1.3275, 3.7609 | |
| Season | Dry | - | - |
| Wet | -0.7229 | -1.6445, 0.0523 | |
| Intervention duration | Baseline | - | |
| Up to 6 months | 4.3039 | 2.4340, 6.0164 | |
| Over 6 months | 2.7054 | 0.8050, 4.5523 | |
| Habitat suitability | Pre-intervention | 10.1749 | 8.1608, 12.5348 |
| Post-intervention | 3.3312 | 1.0200, 5.9269 | |
| Intervention status post-intervention | Up to 6 months, intervention area (<500m) | -3.2549 | -4.5682, -1.5294 |
| Over 6 months, intervention area (<500m) | -2.9710 | -4.6055, -1.1405 | |
| Up to 6 months, edge areas | -5.9018 | -9.8315, -2.5211 | |
| Over 6 months, edge areas | -3.1206 | -6.0659, -0.3326 |
Estimated flies/trap/per day under a range of intervention scenarios obtained from the final fitted model.
| Pre-intervention | T1-T2 (up to 6 months post intervention) | T3 onwards (>6 months post intervention | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | Estimate | 95% CI | |
| 0.0609 | 0.0077, 0.4968 | 0.0202 | 0.0022, 0.1756 | 0.0054 | 0.0007, 0.0440 | |
| 0.2346 | 0.0188, 2.8900 | 0.0059 | 0.0002, 0.1538 | 0.0193 | 0.0013, 0.2526 | |
| 0.0308 | 0.0013, 0.7278 | 0.2646 | 0.0134, 5.5911 | 0.0540 | 0.0025, 1.2276 | |