Tchaa A Bakai1, Anne Thomas2, Jean Iwaz3, Tinah Atcha-Oubou4, Tchassama Tchadjobo5, Nagham Khanafer6, Muriel Rabilloud7, Nicolas Voirin8. 1. Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France; Epidemiology and Modelling in Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Dompierre-sur-Veyle, France; Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP), Lomé, Togo; Service d'Hygiène, Épidémiologie et Prévention, Hôpital Édouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France. Electronic address: francis19fr@yahoo.fr. 2. Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France; Epidemiology and Modelling in Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Dompierre-sur-Veyle, France. Electronic address: thomas.anne10@hotmail.fr. 3. Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France. Electronic address: jean.iwaz@chu-lyon.fr. 4. Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP), Lomé, Togo. Electronic address: atchaoubou@yahoo.fr. 5. Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP), Lomé, Togo. Electronic address: tchastcha@yahoo.fr. 6. Service d'Hygiène, Épidémiologie et Prévention, Hôpital Édouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France. Electronic address: nagham.khanafer@chu-lyon.fr. 7. Université de Lyon, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France; Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, Pôle Santé Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France; Équipe Biostatistique-Santé, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Villeurbanne, France. Electronic address: muriel.rabilloud@chu-lyon.fr. 8. Epidemiology and Modelling in Infectious Diseases (EPIMOD), Dompierre-sur-Veyle, France. Electronic address: nivoirin@gmail.com.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The WHO Malaria Report 2019 stated that "globally, the burden of malaria was lower than ten years ago, but, in the last few years, there has been an increase in the number of malaria cases around the world". This study reported changes in malaria cases and deaths at the Togo national level (2008-2017) and presented anti-malaria fight results and eradication chances by 2030 in Togo. METHODS: Cases and deaths were collected from medical records, monthly reports, and notes of 6000 health workers; then summarized by Region, District, year, and specific subpopulations. Estimates of annual trends of numbers of cases and deaths were obtained through generalized linear models. RESULTS: The number of cases increased by four times, whereas the population increased by 1.3 times (2008-2017). Increases affected all regions and subpopulations; the mean annual relative increases in children <5, pregnant women, and other persons ≥5 were 13%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. Death rates decreased in all Regions; the mean annual relative decreases in the subpopulations were 7%, 16%, and 6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Case increases were associated with higher investments and better monitoring and death decreases to better prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. These trends should incite government and partners to maintain or intensify current efforts to meet the elimination goals by 2030.
OBJECTIVE: The WHO Malaria Report 2019 stated that "globally, the burden of malaria was lower than ten years ago, but, in the last few years, there has been an increase in the number of malaria cases around the world". This study reported changes in malaria cases and deaths at the Togo national level (2008-2017) and presented anti-malaria fight results and eradication chances by 2030 in Togo. METHODS: Cases and deaths were collected from medical records, monthly reports, and notes of 6000 health workers; then summarized by Region, District, year, and specific subpopulations. Estimates of annual trends of numbers of cases and deaths were obtained through generalized linear models. RESULTS: The number of cases increased by four times, whereas the population increased by 1.3 times (2008-2017). Increases affected all regions and subpopulations; the mean annual relative increases in children <5, pregnant women, and other persons ≥5 were 13%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. Death rates decreased in all Regions; the mean annual relative decreases in the subpopulations were 7%, 16%, and 6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Case increases were associated with higher investments and better monitoring and death decreases to better prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. These trends should incite government and partners to maintain or intensify current efforts to meet the elimination goals by 2030.