Evaluation of NASA's high-resolution global composition simulations: Understanding a pollution event in the Chesapeake Bay during the summer 2017 OWLETS campaign.

Recirculation of pollutants due to a bay breeze effect is a key meteorological mechanism impacting air quality near urban coastal areas, but regional and global chemical transport models have historically struggled to capture this phenomenon. We present a case study of a high ozone (O3) episode observed over the Chesapeake Bay during the NASA Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) in summer 2017. OWLETS included a complementary suite of ground-based and airborne observations, with which we characterize the meteorological and chemical context of this event and develop a framework to evaluate model performance. Two publicly-available NASA global high-resolution coupled chemistry-meteorology models (CCMMs) are investigated: GEOS-CF and MERRA2-GMI. The GEOS-CF R2 value for comparisons between the NASA Sherpa C-23 aircraft measurements to the GEOS-CF resulted in good agreement (R2: 0.67) on July 19th and fair agreement (R2: 0.55) for July 20th. Compared to surface observations, we find the GEOS-CF product with a 25 x 25 km2 grid box, at an hourly (R2: 0.62 to 0.87) and 15-minute (R2: 0.64 to 0.87) interval for six regional sites outperforms the hourly nominally 50 x 50 km2 gridded MERRA2-GMI (R2: 0.53 to 0.76) for four of the six sites, suggesting it is better capable of simulating complex chemical and meteorological features associated with ozone transport within the Chesapeake Bay airshed. When the GEOS-CF product was compared to the TOLNet LiDAR observations at both NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), the median differences at LaRC were -6 to 8% and at CBBT were ± 7% between 400 to 2000 m ASL. This indicates that, for this case study, the GEOS-CF is able to simulate surface level ozone diurnal cycles and vertical ozone profiles at small scales between the surface level and 2000 m ASL. Evaluating global chemical model simulations at sub-regional scales will help air quality scientists understand the complex processes occurring at small spatial and temporal scales within complex surface terrain changes, simulating nighttime chemistry and deposition, and the potential to use global chemical transport simulations in support of regional and sub-regional field campaigns.