| Literature DB >> 32970753 |
Qibin Liu1, Xuemin Fang2, Shinichi Tokuno2, Ungil Chung2, Xianxiang Chen1, Xiyong Dai1, Xiaoyu Liu1, Feng Xu1, Bing Wang1, Peng Peng1.
Abstract
Wuhan, China was the epicenter of the 2019 coronavirus outbreak. As a designated hospital for COVID-19, Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital has received over 700 COVID-19 patients. With the COVID-19 becoming a pandemic all over the world, we aim to share our epidemiological and clinical findings with the global community. We studied 340 confirmed COVID-19 patients with clear clinical outcomes from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital, including 310 discharged cases and 30 death cases. We analyzed their demographic, epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data and implemented our findings into an interactive, free access web application to evaluate COVID-19 patient's severity level. Our results show that baseline T cell subsets results differed significantly between the discharged cases and the death cases in Mann Whitney U test: Total T cells (p < 0.001), Helper T cells (p <0.001), Suppressor T cells (p <0.001), and TH/TSC (Helper/Suppressor ratio, p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression model with death or discharge as the outcome resulted in the following significant predictors: age (OR 1.05, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.10), underlying disease status (OR 3.42, 95% CI, 1.30 to 9.95), Helper T cells on the log scale (OR 0.22, 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.40), and TH/TSC on the log scale (OR 4.80, 95% CI, 2.12 to 11.86). The AUC for the logistic regression model is 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84 to 0.95), suggesting the model has a very good predictive power. Our findings suggest that while age and underlying diseases are known risk factors for poor prognosis, patients with a less damaged immune system at the time of hospitalization had higher chance of recovery. Close monitoring of the T cell subsets might provide valuable information of the patient's condition change during the treatment process. Our web visualization application can be used as a supplementary tool for the evaluation.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32970753 PMCID: PMC7514096 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239695
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Fig 1Process flow at the Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital.
Summary table of the patient characteristics and the duration of hospitalization.
| Discharged (n = 310) | Death (n = 30) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (SD) | 56.4 (14.0) | 69.0 (7.87) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 57.0 [46.0, 66.0] | 69.0 [62.5, 73.5] | |
| All diseases | 107 (34.5%) | 23 (76.7%) | <0.001 |
| Hypertension | 68 (21.9%) | 16 (53.3%) | 0.001 |
| Cardiovascular Disease | 19 (6.1%) | 5 (16.7%) | 0.048 |
| COPD | 10 (3.2%) | 1 (3.3%) | >0.999 |
| Diabetes | 6 (1.9%) | 2 (6.7%) | 0.151 |
| Chronic Liver Disease | 6 (1.9%) | 2 (6.7%) | 0.151 |
| Hyperlipidemia | 4 (1.3%) | 0 (0%) | >0.999 |
| Mean (SD) | 11.1 (6.94) | 15.1 (8.78) | 0.024 |
| Median [IQR] | 9.00 [5.00, 14.0] | 12.5 [9.25, 20.3] | |
| Mean (SD) | 15.1 (10.3) | 11.7 (8.20) | 0.039 |
| Median [IQR] | 12.0 [7.00, 20.0] | 10.0 [7.00, 13.0] | |
| Mean (SD) | 26.3 (10.2) | 26.7 (10.0) | 0.806 |
| Median [IQR] | 24.5 [19.0, 34.0] | 25.5 [20.3, 30.5] |
* Some patients had a combination of underlying diseases
Summary table of the initial T cell subsets test.
| Discharged (n = 310) | Death (n = 30) | P value (Mann Whitney U test) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (SD) | 64.0 (12.7) | 52.7 (14.2) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 66.2 [56.7, 73.8] | 53.6 [43.7, 64.4] | |
| Mean (SD) | 773 (549) | 228 (168) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 678 [317.4, 1105.1] | 170 [94.0, 339.1] | |
| Mean (SD) | 37.2 (10.6) | 33.8 (11.8) | 0.195 |
| Median [IQR] | 37.5 [31.0, 44.5] | 36.2 [24.0, 43.2] | |
| Mean (SD) | 457 (342) | 139 (98.0) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 370 [182.8, 651.0] | 115 [62.8, 195.1] | |
| Mean (SD) | 25.0 (8.72) | 17.3 (8.72) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 24.2 [19.6, 29.9] | 16.3 [12.0, 20.8] | |
| Mean (SD) | 297 (220) | 80.9 (97.7) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 249 [118.8, 425.1] | 56.8 [26.8, 80.8] | |
| Mean (SD) | 1.71 (0.894) | 2.41 (1.28) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 1.59 [1.06, 2.04] | 2.25 [1.70, 2.93] | |
| Mean (SD) | 1160 (744) | 425 (254) | <0.001 |
| Median [IQR] | 1020 [536.3, 1603.7] | 375 [211.0, 564.2] |
Fig 2Duration of hospitalization vs age.
a) Duration of the hospitalization plotted vs Age, for the discharged group. Pink dots indicate the patients with underlying medical conditions and the blue dots indicate those without. There are two observations from this chart: 1. Elderly patients tend to have underlying diseases than the younger ones; 2. The duration of the hospitalization tends to be longer among the elderly patients. The straight lines and the shaded areas show the regression line and the 95% confidence interval. The parameter estimates as well as the adjusted R squared values were also indicated in the plots. b) Duration of the hospitalization plotted vs Age, for the death group. Pink dots indicate the patients with underlying medical conditions and the blue dots indicate those without. Elderly patients die more quickly than the younger ones. The straight lines and the shaded areas show the regression line and the 95% confidence interval. The parameter estimates as well as the adjusted R squared values were also indicated in the plots.
Fig 3Comparison of the change rates of the T-cell Subsets between the last and first T cell subsets tests.
a) Violin plot of the total T cells change rates between the last and the first T-cell Subsets tests during the hospitalization. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test comparing the means of the two groups yielded a p value of 0.110. b) Violin plot of the helper T cells change rates between the last and the first T-cell Subsets tests during the hospitalization. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test comparing the means of the two groups yielded a p value of 0.013. c) Violin plot of the suppressor T cells change rates between the last and the first T-cell Subsets tests during the hospitalization. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test comparing the means of the two groups yielded a p value of 0.434. d) Violin plot of the total TH/TSC ratio change rates between the last and the first T-cell Subsets tests during the hospitalization. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test comparing the means of the two groups yielded a p value of 0.034.
Multivariate logistic regression model result using death as the outcome.
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC = 0.78 | AUC = 0.81 | AUC = 0.9 | |||||||
| 95% Bootstrap CI [0.71, 0.85] | 95% Bootstrap CI [0.75, 0.88] | 95% Bootstrap CI [0.84, 0.95] | |||||||
| Estimate | Odds Ratio [95% CI] | P value | Estimate | Odds Ratio [95% CI] | P value | Estimate | Odds Ratio [95% CI] | P value | |
| 0.08 | 1.08 [1.05, 1.13] | <0.01 | 0.07 | 1.07 [1.03, 1.12] | <0.01 | 0.05 | 1.05 [1.00, 1.10] | 0.04 | |
| 1.25 | 3.49 [1.44, 9.34] | 0.01 | 1.23 | 3.42 [1.30, 9.95] | 0.02 | ||||
| -1.47 | 0.22 [0.12, 0.40] | <0.01 | |||||||
| 1.57 | 4.80 [2.12, 11.86] | <0.01 | |||||||
Fig 4ROC Curves for three different logistic regression models.
a) Model 1: logit(Probability of Death) = intercept + aAge. b)Model 2: logit(Probability of Death) = intercept + aAge + bDisease. c) Model 3: logit(Probability of Death) = intercept + aAge + bDisease + clog(Helper) + dlog(Helper/Suppressor).