Does variation in glucocorticoid concentrations predict fitness? A phylogenetic meta-analysis.

Glucocorticoid hormones (GCs) are central mediators of metabolism and the response to challenges. Because circulating GC levels increase in response to challenges, within-population variation in GCs could reflect among-individual variation in condition or experience. At the same time, individual variation in GC regulation could have causal effects on energetic balance or stress coping capacity in ways that influence fitness. Although a number of studies in vertebrates have tested whether variation in GCs among individuals predicts components of fitness, it is not clear whether there are consistent patterns across taxa. Here we present the first phylogenetic meta-analysis testing whether variation in GCs is associated with survival and reproductive success across vertebrates. At the same time, we introduce and test predictions about a potentially important mediator of GC-fitness relationships: life history context. We suggest that strong context-dependence in the fitness benefit of maintaining elevated GCs could obscure consistent patterns between GCs and fitness across taxa. Meta-analyses revealed that baseline and stress-induced GCs were consistently negatively correlated with reproductive success. This relationship did not differ depending on life history context. In contrast, the relationships between GCs and survival were highly context dependent, differing according to life history strategy. Both baseline and stress-induced GCs were more strongly negatively associated with survival in longer-lived populations and species. Stress-induced GCs were also more positively associated with survival in organisms that engage in relatively more valuable reproductive attempts. Fecal GCs did not correlate with survival or reproductive success. We also found that experimental increases in GCs reduced both survival and reproductive success; however, evidence of publication bias and the small sample size suggest that more data is required to confirm this conclusion. Overall, these results support the prediction that GC-fitness relationships can be strongly context dependent, and suggest that incorporating life history may be particularly important for understanding GC-survival relationships.