An exploratory analysis of factors associated with traffic crashes severity in Cartagena, Colombia.

Traffic fatalities are the second cause of violent deaths in Colombia. However, due to the signing of the peace agreement and the growing number of fatalities in road crashes, it is possible that soon traffic fatalities will be the primary cause of violent deaths in the country, particularly in urban areas. This study is an exploratory analysis focused on identifying the main factors associated with the severity of traffic crashes in urban areas, using Cartagena as a case study. We analyzed three levels of crash severity, namely fatal, injury, and property-damage-only, considering factors in several different dimensions: victim, vehicle, road infrastructure, traffic and control, day and time, and environmental factors. A modeling approach based on multinomial ordered discrete models was used to properly identify the main factors associated with the severity levels. We found that the probability of fatal accidents is higher on streets with speed limits over 40 km/h, and that males and people aged 60 years or older are the victims with the most significant risk of fatal crashes. Motorcycles were also identified as vehicles with the highest probability of fatal crashes in the city. We showed that the probability of fatal crashes occurring is higher on streets where pedestrian bridges, traffic lights, and crosswalks are present. These findings are worthy because, in Colombia and other developing countries, the authorities normally expect to reduce the probability of fatal accidents through investments in pedestrian bridges, signaling devices, and crosswalk markings. However, according to our results, it possibly will not occur unless further countermeasures are taken. Based on these findings, reducing speed limits, operational improvements at signalized intersections, zero tolerance for traffic violations related to pedestrians, an awareness campaign on pedestrian safety focused on males and people aged 60 or older, and improving motorcycle safety are the countermeasures we proposed. Furthermore, as the authorities make significant efforts to investing in pedestrian bridges, we propose a further investigation into the traffic crashes in streets where there is this infrastructure since more severe events occur near them.