| Literature DB >> 32861734 |
Gokhan Cetinkal1, Betul Balaban Kocas2, Ozgur Selim Ser2, Hakan Kilci2, Kudret Keskin2, Safiye Nur Ozcan3, Yildiz Verdi3, Mustafa Ismet Zeren3, Tolga Demir4, Kadriye Kilickesmez2.
Abstract
Since the modified CHA2DS2VASC (M-CHA2DS2VASc) risk score includes the prognostic risk factors for COVID-19; we assumed that it might predict in-hospital mortality and identify high-risk patients at an earlier stage compared with troponin increase and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). We aimed to investigate whether M-CHA2DS2VASC RS is an independent predictor of mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and to compare its discriminative ability with troponin increase and NLR in terms of predicting mortality. A total of 694 patients were retrospectively analyzed and divided into 3 groups according to M-CHA2DS2VASC RS which was simply created by changing gender criteria of the CHA2DS2VASC RS from female to male (Group 1, score 0-1 (n = 289); group 2, score 2-3 (n = 231) and group 3, score ≥4 (n = 174)). Adverse clinical events were defined as in-hospital mortality, admission to intensive care unit, need for high-flow oxygen and/or intubation. As the M-CHA2DS2VASC RS increased, adverse clinical outcomes were also significantly increased (Group 1, 3.8%; group 2, 12.6%; group 3, 20.8%; p <0.001 for in-hospital mortality). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that M-CHA2DS2VASC RS, troponin increase and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.005, odds ratio 1.29 per scale for M-CHA2DS2VASC RS). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, comparative discriminative ability of M-CHA2DS2VASC RS was superior to CHA2DS2VASC RS score. Area under the curve (AUC) values for in-hospital mortality was 0.70 and 0.64, respectively. (AUCM-CHA2DS2-VASc vs. AUCCHA2DS2-VASc z test = 3.56, p 0.0004) In conclusion, admission M-CHA2DS2VASc RS may be a useful tool to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32861734 PMCID: PMC7453224 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2020.08.040
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Am J Cardiol ISSN: 0002-9149 Impact factor: 2.778
The clinical and demographic features of the study population according to M-CHADSVASC score
| M-CHADSVASC 0-1 (n = 289) | M-CHADSVASC 2-3 (n = 231) | M-CHADSVASC > 4 (n = 174) | p Value | Post-hoc analysis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years) | 48 (38-55) | 64 (57-72) | 76 (70-81) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| Men | 152 (52.6%) | 136 (58.9%) | 112 (64.4%) | 0.04 | |
| Diabetes mellitus | 14 (4.8%) | 79 (34.2%) | 94 (54%) | <0.001 | |
| Hypertension | 30 (10.4%) | 154 (66.7%) | 165 (94.8%) | <0.001 | |
| Hypercholesterolemia | 10 (3.5%) | 38(16.5%) | 62 (35.6%) | <0.001 | |
| Smoker | 46 (15.9 %) | 55 (23.8 %) | 31 (17.8 %) | 0.07 | |
| Previous CVD | 3 (1%) | 47 (20.3%) | 111 (63.8%) | <0.001 | |
| COPD | 22 (7.6%) | 37 (16%) | 28 (16.1%) | 0.004 | |
| Heart failure | 0 | 3 (1.3%) | 39 (22.4%) | <0.001 | |
| Chronic kidney disease | 10 (3.5%) | 16 (6.9%) | 37 (21.3%) | <0.001 | |
| Previous stroke | 0 | 5 (2.2 %) | 28 (16.1%) | <0.001 | |
| Severe infection | 40 (13.8%) | 67 (29%) | 64 (36.8%) | <0.001 | |
| Previous malignancy | 7 (2.4%) | 17 (7.4%) | 30 (17.2%) | <0.001 | |
| Length of hospital stay (days) | 7 (5-9) | 8 (6-11) | 9 (6-13) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.007 |
| CHADSVASC RS | 0 (0-1) | 2 (1-3) | 4 (3-5) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| M-CHADSVASC RS | 1 (0-1) | 3 (2-3) | 4 (4-5) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| CHADS RS | 0 | 1 (1-2) | 2 (2-3) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.001 |
| NLR | 2.96 (2-4.96) | 3.43(2.45-6.39) | 5.02(2.82-9.98) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| In-hospital medications |
CVD = cardiovascular disease; COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; NLR = neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio; RS = risk score.
Kruskal-Wallis test.
Biochemical characteristics of the study population according to M-CHADSVASC score
| M-CHADSVASC 0-1 (n = 289) | M-CHADSVASC 2-3 (n = 231) | M-CHADSVASC >4 (n = 174) | p Value | Post-hoc analysis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troponin I (ng/dl) | 2.9 (2.3-5.7) | 7 (3.8-22) | 20.5 (8.3-73.5) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| CK-MB (ug/L) | 0.9 (0.5-1.6) | 1.4 (0.9-3) | 2 (1.1-3.5) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| D-dimer (ug/L) | 531 (340-817) | 722 (479-1340) | 874 (643-1575) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| White blood cell (/mm3) | 5560 (4380-7455) | 6350 (4650-8610) | 7120 (5235-10515) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.025 |
| Neutrophil (/mm3) | 3780 (2770-5540) | 4420 (3100-6570) | 5228 (3645-8028) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.001 |
| Lymphocyte (/mm3) | 1250 (920-1675) | 1150 (800-1580) | 1015 (707-1500) | 0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.24 |
| Hemoglobin (g/dL) | 13.7 (12.5-14.8) | 13.6 (11.8-14.6) | 12.2 (10.6-13.7) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.135 |
| Platelet (103/mm3) | 186 (150-229) | 194 (154-244) | 200 (154-274) | 0.23 | |
| Urea (mg/dl) | 26 (20-32) | 36 (27-51) | 48 (36-79) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| Creatinine (mg/dl) | 0.8 (0.66-0.98) | 0.9 (0.73-1.11) | 1.1 (0.82-1.58) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| AST (U/L) | 23 (17-32) | 29 (19-45) | 27 (20-41) | 0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.002 |
| ALT (U/L) | 21 (14-33) | 28 (19-44) | 27 (18-40) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 Group1vs3 p <0.001 |
| Total bilirubine (mg/dl) | 0.50 (0.40-0.68) | 0.52 (0.42-0.74) | 0.58 (0.44-0.90) | 0.01 | Group1vs2 p 0.68 |
| Glucose (mg/dl) | 110 (101-124) | 126 (109-160) | 130 (106-185) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| LDH (U/L) | 250 (208-331) | 258 (221-314) | 268 (217-358) | 0.24 | |
| Ferritin (ug/L) | 148 (65-401) | 174 (75-362) | 230 (99-480) | 0.004 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| CRP (mg/L) | 28 (12-78) | 54 (17-99) | 46 (21-127) | 0.001 | Group1vs2 p 0.04 |
| Procalcitonin (ug/L) | 0.12 (0.11-0.13) | 0.12 (0.11-0.24) | 0.14 (0.11-0.38) | <0.001 | Group1vs2 p <0.001 |
| APTT (sec) | 25.3 (23.4-26.9) | 25.2 (23.2-27.1) | 26.2 (24.1-28.1) | 0.005 | Group1vs2 p 0.99 |
ALT = alanin aminotransferase; AST = aspartate aminotransferase; APTT = activated partial thromboplastin time; CK-MB = creatine kinase MB; CRP = C-reactive protein; LDH = lactate dehydrogenase.
Kruskal-Wallis test.
Figure 1The rates of the in hospital mortality, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanic ventilation and high flow oxygen demand among the groups.
Univariable and multivariable predictors of in hospital mortality
| Univariate | Multivariate | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds Ratio (95%CI) | p value | Odds Ratio (95%CI) | p value | |
| M-CHADSVASC RS | 1.43 (1.25-1.62) | <0.001 | 1.29 (1.08-1.54) | 0.005 |
| CHADSVASC RS | 1.27 (1.13-1.44) | <0.001 | ||
| CHADS RS | 1.55 (1.28-1.87) | <0.001 | ||
| Troponin I | 1.001 (1.001-1.004) | <0.001 | 1.001 (1.000-1.001) | <0.001 |
| NLR | 1.16 (1.12-1.21) | <0.001 | 1.07 (1.02-1.11) | 0.003 |
| Male gender | 1.93 (1.15-3.25) | 0.012 | ||
| Age | 1.056 (1.038-1.075) | <0.001 | ||
| Hypertension | 1.92(1.17-3.16) | 0.009 | ||
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.80 (1.09-2.95) | 0.02 | ||
| Cardiovascular disease | 1.51 (0.89-2.55) | 0.12 | ||
| Heart failure | 3.20 (1.54-6.68) | 0.001 | ||
| Previous stroke | 1.88 (0.75-4.70) | 0.17 | ||
| Chronic kidney disease | 2.09 (1.06-4.11) | 0.03 | 1.35 (0.59-3.07) | 0.47 |
| Smokers | 0.69 (0.36-1.36) | 0.29 | 0.81 (0.37-1.76) | 0.59 |
| COPD | 0.93 (0.45-1.94) | 0.85 | 0.74 (0.30-1.76) | 0.53 |
| Previous malignancy | 1.98 (0.95-4.11) | 0.06 | 1.39 (0.54-3.58) | 0.49 |
| D-dimer | 1.001 (1.001-1.003) | <0.001 | 1.00 (1.000-1.001) | 0.24 |
| LDH | 1.005 (1.004-1.007) | <0.001 | 1.004 (1.001-1.006) | 0.001 |
| CRP | 1.013 (1.010-1.017) | <0.001 | ||
| Procalcitonin | 4.41 (2.71-7.17) | <0.001 | 2.37 (1.35-4.19) | 0.003 |
| Ferritin | 1.001 (1.001-1.002) | <0.001 | 1.001 (1.000-1.001) | 0.003 |
CI: Confidence interval, CRP: C reactive protein, COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, LDH: lactate dehydrogenase, NLR: neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, RS: risk score.
Figure 2ROC analysis comparing the predictive accuracy of M-CHA2DS2VASc RS, CHA2DS2VASc RS, CHADS RS, Troponin I and NLR for in hospital mortality. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval.