Flavia Baldacchini1, Lauro Bucchi2, Orietta Giuliani1, Silvia Mancini1, Alessandra Ravaioli1, Rosa Vattiato1, Paolo Giorgi Rossi3, Cinzia Campari4, Debora Canuti5, Enza Di Felice6, Francesca Mezzetti6, Priscilla Sassoli de Bianchi6, Stefano Ferretti7, Fabio Falcini8. 1. Romagna Cancer Registry, Romagna Cancer Institute, Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Meldola, Forlì, Italy. 2. Romagna Cancer Registry, Romagna Cancer Institute, Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Meldola, Forlì, Italy. Electronic address: lauro.bucchii@irst.emr.it. 3. Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy. 4. Cancer Screening Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale, IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy. 5. Cancer Screening Unit, Local Health Authority, Rimini, Italy. 6. Department of Health, Regional Administration, Emilia-Romagna Region, Bologna, Italy. 7. University of Ferrara and Local Health Authority, Ferrara, Italy. 8. Romagna Cancer Registry, Romagna Cancer Institute, Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Meldola, Forlì, Italy; Cancer Prevention Unit, Local Health Authority, Forlì, Italy.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated the magnitude and temporal patterns of the decreasing trend in main performance measures of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) observed in second and subsequent rounds. METHODS: We followed up 494,187 participants from the first round of a regional biennial FIT screening program in Italy (cut-off value for positivity, 20 μg hemoglobin/g feces) for 5 total rounds (2005-2016). At each round, only compliant participants were eligible. Performance measures from the first, third, fourth, and fifth rounds were compared with those from the second round (the first incidence round) using rate ratios from multivariate Poisson regression models and relative risk ratios from multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Between the second and the third rounds, a significant 20% to 30% decrease was found in the proportion of men with a positive FIT result (from 5.2% to 4.3%) and in detection rates of advanced adenoma (from 13.4 to 10.2 per 1000), CRC (from 1.7 to 1.4 per 1000), and advanced neoplasia (from 15.1 to 11.6 per 1000). Positive predictive values (PPVs) decreased by 10% or less between the second and third rounds. Detection rates and PPVs for adenoma stabilized by the fourth and fifth rounds. The PPVs for advanced adenoma, CRC, and advanced neoplasia decreased slightly in men and women by the fourth and fifth rounds. The detection rate of proximal colon cancer stabilized after the second round, whereas the detection rate of distal colon cancer decreased until the fourth round in men (from 0.7 to 0.3 per 1000), and the fifth round in women. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that FIT screening prevents progression of a subset of advanced adenomas. Screening intensity could be modulated based on results from previous rounds, with a risk-based strategy.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated the magnitude and temporal patterns of the decreasing trend in main performance measures of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) observed in second and subsequent rounds. METHODS: We followed up 494,187 participants from the first round of a regional biennial FIT screening program in Italy (cut-off value for positivity, 20 μg hemoglobin/g feces) for 5 total rounds (2005-2016). At each round, only compliant participants were eligible. Performance measures from the first, third, fourth, and fifth rounds were compared with those from the second round (the first incidence round) using rate ratios from multivariate Poisson regression models and relative risk ratios from multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Between the second and the third rounds, a significant 20% to 30% decrease was found in the proportion of men with a positive FIT result (from 5.2% to 4.3%) and in detection rates of advanced adenoma (from 13.4 to 10.2 per 1000), CRC (from 1.7 to 1.4 per 1000), and advanced neoplasia (from 15.1 to 11.6 per 1000). Positive predictive values (PPVs) decreased by 10% or less between the second and third rounds. Detection rates and PPVs for adenoma stabilized by the fourth and fifth rounds. The PPVs for advanced adenoma, CRC, and advanced neoplasia decreased slightly in men and women by the fourth and fifth rounds. The detection rate of proximal colon cancer stabilized after the second round, whereas the detection rate of distal colon cancer decreased until the fourth round in men (from 0.7 to 0.3 per 1000), and the fifth round in women. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that FIT screening prevents progression of a subset of advanced adenomas. Screening intensity could be modulated based on results from previous rounds, with a risk-based strategy.