Michiel van Boven1, Anne C Teirlinck1, Adam Meijer1, Mariëtte Hooiveld2, Christiaan H van Dorp3, Rachel M Reeves4, Harry Campbell4, Wim van der Hoek1. 1. Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands. 2. Nivel, Utrecht, the Netherlands. 3. Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. 4. Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally. METHODS: Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012-2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination. RESULTS: Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.
BACKGROUND:Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally. METHODS: Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012-2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination. RESULTS: Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.
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