| Literature DB >> 32815418 |
Linda Sharples1, Olympia Papachristofi1,2, Saleema Rex1,3, Sabine Landau4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Surgical interventions allow for tailoring of treatment to individual patients and implementation may vary with surgeon and healthcare provider. In addition, in clinical trials assessing two competing surgical interventions, the treatments may be accompanied by co-interventions. AIMS: This study explores the use of causal mediation analysis to (1) delineate the treatment effect that results directly from the surgical intervention under study and the indirect effect acting through a co-intervention and (2) to evaluate the benefit of the surgical intervention if either everybody in the trial population received the co-intervention or nobody received it.Entities:
Keywords: Complex surgical interventions; clustering; co-interventions; mediation analysis; mediation estimands; surgeon effects; treatment effect heterogeneity
Year: 2020 PMID: 32815418 PMCID: PMC7691573 DOI: 10.1177/1740774520947644
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Clin Trials ISSN: 1740-7745 Impact factor: 2.486
Figure 1.Simple causal graph for the Amaze trial assuming no confounding. LAA: left atrial appendage.
Definitions of natural direct, natural indirect, total and controlled direct effects for an individual patient i.
| Algebraic specification | Definition |
|---|---|
|
| Natural indirect effect for the intervention, control arms and their average actingthrough the mediator |
|
| Natural direct effect of treatment fixing the mediator at the control, intervention or average level |
|
| The total natural effect (TE) |
|
| Controlled direct effect of treatment if mediator is mandated or prohibited |
a* denotes the average of the two treatment arms as the reference.
Estimated odds ratios for return to sinus rhythm at one year using data from the Amaze trial (results for operation type are suppressed).
| Original trial analysis | Outcome model for mediation | |
|---|---|---|
| Variable | Odds ratio (95% CI) | Odds ratio (95% CI) |
| Ablation | 2.43 (1.40, 4.21) | 1.59 (0.76, 3.32) |
| LAA removal | 0.75 (0.30, 1.84) | |
| Ablation–LAA interaction | 2.57 (0.78, 8.44) | |
| Baseline sinus rhythm | 8.31 (3.42, 20.20) | 8.58 (3.50, 21.06) |
| Age in years | 0.96 (0.92, 1.00) | 0.96 (0.92, 1.00) |
| ICC(surgeon)[ | 0.084 | 0.102 |
CI: confidence interval; LAA: left atrial appendage.
ICC(surgeon) is the Intra-Cluster Correlation Coefficient due to surgeon random effects on the log-odds scale, calculated as the proportion of total variation attributed to variation between surgeons. Level 1 residual variance is using the latent variable formulation of the logistic regression model.
Estimated odds ratios for LAA removal for the mediator model using data from the Amaze trial (results for operation type suppressed).
| Variable | Odds ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Ablation | 4.78 (2.65, 8.64) |
| Baseline sinus rhythm | 0.51 (0.23, 1.16) |
| Age in years | 0.94 (0.90, 0.99) |
| ICC (surgeon)[ | 0.56 |
LAA: left atrial appendage; CI: confidence interval.
ICC(surgeon) is the intra-cluster correlation coefficient due to surgeon random effects on the log-odds scale, calculated as the proportion of total variation attributed to variation between surgeons. Level 1 residual variance is using the latent variable formulation of the logistic regression model.
Figure 2.Total effect (TE), natural direct effects (NDE) and natural indirect effects (NIE) of ablation on return to normal heart rhythm (with mediator at the level of control arm (0), intervention arm (1) and the average).
Figure 3.Estimated natural direct effect (left) and natural indirect effect (right), with 95% confidence intervals, as a function of patient age (SR: sinus rhythm; vertical line at mean age of trial sample 71.9 years).