Hajar Nazari Kangavari1, Abdolrazagh Barzegar2, Seyed Davood Mirtorabi3, Mohammad Reza Ghadirzadeh2, Mehdi Forouzesh2, Niloufar Taherpour4, Fatemeh Shahbazi4, Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari5. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 2. Legal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization, Tehran, Iran. 3. Department of Addiction Studies, School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 4. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 5. Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. saeedh_1999@yahoo.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study. METHODS: Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model. RESULTS: Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups, respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in 2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8) respectively (P<0.001)). CONCLUSION: The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical, socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.
BACKGROUND: Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study. METHODS: Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model. RESULTS: Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups, respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in 2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8) respectively (P<0.001)). CONCLUSION: The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical, socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.
Authors: Diego E Zavala-Zegarra; Magdalena López-Charneco; Enid J Garcia-Rivera; Alberto Concha-Eastman; José F Rodriguez; María Conte-Miller Journal: Rev Panam Salud Publica Date: 2012-11