Estimating Arctic Temperature Impacts from Select European Residential Heating Appliances and Mitigation Strategies.

The use of residential heating devices is a key source of black carbon and other short-lived climate forcer emissions in Arctic and other high latitude regions, with important impacts to the Arctic climate and human health. The types of combustion technologies and fuels used varies by region, which impacts the emission profiles of these pollutants and thus the magnitude of Arctic climate responses. Using emission inventory data from 14 European countries, we derive wood-fueled residential heating emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate from six appliance types in 2016. Using previously derived equilibrium Arctic temperature responses, we estimate Arctic temperature influences from each appliance type. Using the 2016 appliance emission data as a baseline, we compute the emission mass and Arctic temperature mitigation potential from hypothetical stove conversion scenarios. A total of 43.2 gigagrams (Gg) of black carbon, 175.7 Gg of organic carbon, and 10.3 Gg of sulfate were emitted in 2016 from the six appliance types in the 14 countries. The combined emissions increased Arctic surface temperatures by +2.8 millikelvin. If each country converted its appliance fleet to the technologically advanced pellet stoves and boilers, the combined black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate emissions from heating appliances could be reduced by 94% and the Arctic temperature response reduced by 85%. The specific source and originating region of emissions are important factors in resolving the magnitude of their impacts. Improved country-level accounting of specific appliances and their emission characteristics can lead to a better understanding of potential mitigation options.