Alex H S Harris1, Alfred C Kuo2, Thomas R Bowe3, Luisa Manfredi3, Narlina F Lalani4, Nicholas J Giori5. 1. Center for Innovation to Implementation, VA Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, CA; Department of Surgery, Stanford-Surgical Policy Improvement Research and Education (S-SPIRE) Center, Stanford, CA. 2. San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center, University of California, San Francisco, CA. 3. Center for Innovation to Implementation, VA Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, CA. 4. Center for Care Delivery and Outcomes Research, VA Minneapolis Healthcare System, Minneapolis, MN. 5. Center for Innovation to Implementation, VA Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, CA; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Approximately 15%-20% of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients do not experience clinically meaningful improvements. We sought to compare the accuracy and parsimony of several machine learning strategies for developing predictive models of failing to experience minimal clinically important differences in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) 1 year after TKA. METHODS: Patients (N = 587) in 3 large Veteran Health Administration facilities completed PROMs before and 1 year after TKA (92% follow-up). Preoperative PROMs and electronic health record data were used to develop and validate models to predict failing to experience at least a minimal clinically important difference in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Total, KOOS JR, and KOOS subscales (Pain, Symptoms, Activities of Daily Living, Quality of Life, and recreation). Several machine learning strategies were used for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation and bootstrapping were used to produce measures of overall accuracy (C-statistic, Brier Score). The sensitivity and specificity of various predicted probability cut-points were examined. RESULTS: The most accurate models produced were for the Activities of Daily Living, Pain, Symptoms, and Quality of Life subscales of the KOOS (C-statistics 0.76, 0.72, 0.72, and 0.71, respectively). Strategies varied substantially in terms of the numbers of inputs required to achieve similar accuracy, with none being superior for all outcomes. CONCLUSION: Models produced in this project provide estimates of patient-specific improvements in major outcomes 1 year after TKA. Integrating these models into clinical decision support, informed consent and shared decision making could improve patient selection, education, and satisfaction. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic study. Published by Elsevier Inc.
BACKGROUND: Approximately 15%-20% of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients do not experience clinically meaningful improvements. We sought to compare the accuracy and parsimony of several machine learning strategies for developing predictive models of failing to experience minimal clinically important differences in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) 1 year after TKA. METHODS:Patients (N = 587) in 3 large Veteran Health Administration facilities completed PROMs before and 1 year after TKA (92% follow-up). Preoperative PROMs and electronic health record data were used to develop and validate models to predict failing to experience at least a minimal clinically important difference in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Total, KOOS JR, and KOOS subscales (Pain, Symptoms, Activities of Daily Living, Quality of Life, and recreation). Several machine learning strategies were used for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation and bootstrapping were used to produce measures of overall accuracy (C-statistic, Brier Score). The sensitivity and specificity of various predicted probability cut-points were examined. RESULTS: The most accurate models produced were for the Activities of Daily Living, Pain, Symptoms, and Quality of Life subscales of the KOOS (C-statistics 0.76, 0.72, 0.72, and 0.71, respectively). Strategies varied substantially in terms of the numbers of inputs required to achieve similar accuracy, with none being superior for all outcomes. CONCLUSION: Models produced in this project provide estimates of patient-specific improvements in major outcomes 1 year after TKA. Integrating these models into clinical decision support, informed consent and shared decision making could improve patient selection, education, and satisfaction. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic study. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Authors: Florian Hinterwimmer; Igor Lazic; Christian Suren; Michael T Hirschmann; Florian Pohlig; Daniel Rueckert; Rainer Burgkart; Rüdiger von Eisenhart-Rothe Journal: Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc Date: 2022-01-10 Impact factor: 4.114