Paolo Candio1,2, David Meads2, Andrew J Hill2, Laura Bojke3. 1. Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK. 2. Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. 3. Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this paper is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a proportionate universal programme to reduce physical inactivity (Leeds Let us Get Active (LLGA)) in adults. METHODS: A continuous-time Markov chain model was developed to assess the cost implications and QALY gains associated with increases in physical activity levels across the adult population. A parametric survival analysis approach was applied to estimate the decay of intervention effect over time. Baseline model data were obtained from previous economic models, population-based surveys and other published literature. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a health care sector perspective over the programme duration (39 months). Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: In total, 51 874 adult residents registered to the programme and provided baseline data,19.5% of which were living in deprived areas. Under base case assumptions, LLGA was found to be likely to be cost-effective. However, variations in key structural assumptions showed sensitivity of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest a non-negligible level of uncertainty regarding the effectiveness, and therefore, cost-effectiveness of a universal offer of free leisure centre-based exercise that targets hard to reach groups. Further data collection and a shift towards prospective evaluations are needed.
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this paper is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a proportionate universal programme to reduce physical inactivity (Leeds Let us Get Active (LLGA)) in adults. METHODS: A continuous-time Markov chain model was developed to assess the cost implications and QALY gains associated with increases in physical activity levels across the adult population. A parametric survival analysis approach was applied to estimate the decay of intervention effect over time. Baseline model data were obtained from previous economic models, population-based surveys and other published literature. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a health care sector perspective over the programme duration (39 months). Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: In total, 51 874 adult residents registered to the programme and provided baseline data,19.5% of which were living in deprived areas. Under base case assumptions, LLGA was found to be likely to be cost-effective. However, variations in key structural assumptions showed sensitivity of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest a non-negligible level of uncertainty regarding the effectiveness, and therefore, cost-effectiveness of a universal offer of free leisure centre-based exercise that targets hard to reach groups. Further data collection and a shift towards prospective evaluations are needed.