Literature DB >> 32747871

MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES IN RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR.

Debra L Emmons, Thomas A Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani, Curtis E Larsen.   

Abstract

This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cognitive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps for grounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the checklist to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Cognitive Bias Reduction; Optimism Bias; Planning Fallacy; Risk Management

Year:  2018        PMID: 32747871      PMCID: PMC7398041          DOI: 10.22594/dau.16-770.25.01

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Def Acquis Res J        ISSN: 2156-8391


  6 in total

1.  Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives' decisions.

Authors:  Dan Lovallo; Daniel Kahneman
Journal:  Harv Bus Rev       Date:  2003-07

Review 2.  Development of medical checklists for improved quality of patient care.

Authors:  Brigette Hales; Marius Terblanche; Robert Fowler; William Sibbald
Journal:  Int J Qual Health Care       Date:  2007-12-11       Impact factor: 2.038

3.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

Authors:  A Tversky; D Kahneman
Journal:  Science       Date:  1974-09-27       Impact factor: 47.728

4.  Before you make that big decision...

Authors:  Daniel Kahneman; Dan Lovallo; Olivier Sibony
Journal:  Harv Bus Rev       Date:  2011-06

5.  Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.

Authors:  Gilberto Montibeller; Detlof von Winterfeldt
Journal:  Risk Anal       Date:  2015-04-15       Impact factor: 4.000

6.  Perceived risk, real risk: social science and the art of probabilistic risk assessment.

Authors:  W R Freudenburg
Journal:  Science       Date:  1988-10-07       Impact factor: 47.728

  6 in total

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