Rongbin Xu1, Xiuqin Xiong2, Michael J Abramson3, Shanshan Li4, Yuming Guo5. 1. School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, Shandong, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. 2. Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia. 3. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. 4. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu. 5. School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai, Shandong, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There has been an increasing interest in the association between ambient temperature and violence and crime, in the context of global warming. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily ambient temperature and intentional homicide-a proxy for overall inter-personal violence. METHODS: We collected daily weather and crime data from 9 large US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Louisville, New York, Tucson and Virginia Beach) from 2007 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used. The associations were quantified by conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for relative humidity, precipitation and effects of public holidays. City-specific odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the attributable fractions in each city. RESULTS: Based on 19,523 intentional homicide cases, we found a linear temperature-homicide association. Every 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3-15.0%] and 8.8% (95% CI: 1.5-16.6%) increase in intentional homicide over lag 0-7 days in Chicago and New York, respectively. The association was not statistically significant in the other seven cities and seemed to be stronger for cases that happened during the hot season, at night (18:00-06:00) and on the street. During the study period, 8.7% (95%CI: 4.3-12.7%) and 7.1% (95% CI: 1.4-12.0%) intentional homicide cases could be attributed to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to 488 and 316 excess cases in Chicago and New York, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the interpersonal violence might increase with temperature in some US cities. We also provide some insights into the mechanisms and targeted prevention strategies for heat-related violence.
BACKGROUND: There has been an increasing interest in the association between ambient temperature and violence and crime, in the context of global warming. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily ambient temperature and intentional homicide-a proxy for overall inter-personal violence. METHODS: We collected daily weather and crime data from 9 large US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Louisville, New York, Tucson and Virginia Beach) from 2007 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used. The associations were quantified by conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for relative humidity, precipitation and effects of public holidays. City-specific odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the attributable fractions in each city. RESULTS: Based on 19,523 intentional homicide cases, we found a linear temperature-homicide association. Every 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3-15.0%] and 8.8% (95% CI: 1.5-16.6%) increase in intentional homicide over lag 0-7 days in Chicago and New York, respectively. The association was not statistically significant in the other seven cities and seemed to be stronger for cases that happened during the hot season, at night (18:00-06:00) and on the street. During the study period, 8.7% (95%CI: 4.3-12.7%) and 7.1% (95% CI: 1.4-12.0%) intentional homicide cases could be attributed to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to 488 and 316 excess cases in Chicago and New York, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the interpersonal violence might increase with temperature in some US cities. We also provide some insights into the mechanisms and targeted prevention strategies for heat-related violence.
Authors: Rachel S Bergmans; Peter Larson; Erica Bennion; Briana Mezuk; Matthew C Wozniak; Allison L Steiner; Carina J Gronlund Journal: Environ Res Date: 2021-06-05 Impact factor: 8.431
Authors: Lawrence A Palinkas; Michael S Hurlburt; Cecilia Fernandez; Jessenia De Leon; Kexin Yu; Erika Salinas; Erika Garcia; Jill Johnston; Md Mostafijur Rahman; Sam J Silva; Rob S McConnell Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-09-04 Impact factor: 4.614