| Literature DB >> 32731993 |
Anita Dame-Korevaar1, Egil A J Fischer2, Jeanet van der Goot3, Francisca Velkers2, Daniela Ceccarelli3, Dik Mevius4, Arjan Stegeman2.
Abstract
Broilers are an important reservoir of extended spectrum beta-lactamase and AmpC beta-lactamase (ESBL/pAmpC)-producing bacteria. In previous studies, a single supply of a competitive exclusion (CE) product before challenge with a high dose of ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli led to reduced colonization, excretion, and transmission, but could not prevent colonization. The hypothesized mechanism is competition; therefore, in this study the effect of a prolonged supply of CE products on colonization, excretion, and transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli after challenge with a low dose at day 0 or day 5 was investigated. Day-old broilers (Ross 308) (n = 220) were housed in isolators. Two CE products, containing unselected fermented intestinal bacteria (CEP) or a selection of pre- and probiotics (SYN), were supplied in drinking water from day 0 to 14. At day 0 or 5, broilers were challenged with 0.5 mL with 101 or 102 cfu/mL E. coli encoding the beta-lactamase gene blaCTX-M-1 on an IncI plasmid (CTX-M-1-E. coli). Presence and concentration of CTX-M-1-E. coli were determined using cloacal swabs (days 0-14, 16, 19, and 21) and cecal content (day 21). Cox proportional hazard model and a mixed linear regression model were used to determine the effect of the intervention on colonization and excretion (log10 cfu/g). When challenged on the day of hatch, no effect of CEP was observed. When challenged at day 5, both CEP and SYN led to a prevention of colonization with CTX-M-1-E. coli in some isolators. In the remaining isolators, we observed reduced time until colonization (hazard ratio between 3.71 × 10-3 and 3.11), excretion (up to -1.60 log10 cfu/g), and cecal content (up to -2.80 log10 cfu/g), and a 1.5 to 3-fold reduction in transmission rate. Colonization after a low-dose challenge with ESBL-producing E. coli can be prevented by CE products. However, if at least 1 bird is colonized it spreads through the whole flock. Prolonged supply of CE products, provided shortly after hatch, may be applicable as an intervention to reduce the prevalence of ESBL/pAmpC-producing bacteria in the broiler production chain.Entities:
Keywords: ESBL; antimicrobial resistance; competitive exclusion; intervention; pAmpC
Year: 2020 PMID: 32731993 PMCID: PMC7597911 DOI: 10.1016/j.psj.2020.04.025
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Poult Sci ISSN: 0032-5791 Impact factor: 3.352
Date, age of parent flock (weeks), day (0 or 5), and dose (non-inoculated, or 0.5 mL of 101 or 102 cfu/mL) of challenge and intervention (none (-), CEP, or SYN) for experiments 1 (n = 70 broilers), 2 (n = 70 broilers), and 3 (n = 80 broilers).
| Experiment | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | 12 April–3 May 2017 | 24 May–14 June 2017 | 23 Oct–13 Nov 2017 | |||
| Parent flock | A, 54 wk | A, 60 wk | B, 57 wk | |||
| Day of challenge | Day 0 | Day 5 | Day 5 | |||
| 1 | Non-inoculated (-) | - | Non-inoculated (saline solution) | - | Non-inoculated (saline solution) | - |
| 2 | 101 | None (-) | 101 | None (-) | 102 | None (-) |
| 3 | 101 | CEP | 101 | CEP | 102 | CEP |
| 4 | 101 | CEP | 101 | CEP | 102 | CEP |
| 5 | 102 | None (-) | 102 | None (-) | 102 | SYN |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 102 | CEP | 102 | SYN |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 102 | CEP | 102 | SYN |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | ||||
Abbreviations: CEP, competitive exclusion product; SYN, selection of pre- and probiotics.
In all 3 experiments, the eggs were disinfected with formaldehyde before incubation and in the hatcher before hatching.
Challenge with Escherichia coli E38.27 with blaCTX-M-1 on IncI1 plasmid.
Inoculated birds (n = 5 out of 10 in each isolator) received 0.5 mL of the mentioned challenge dose.
Intervention was implemented in all experiments from day 0, 4:00 pm until day 14, 4:00 pm. In experiment 1, supply of the intervention started immediately after challenge.
Hazard ratio (95% CI) of time until colonization for experiments 1 (n = 53), 2: dose 102 (n = 29), and 3 (n = 40); broilers were challenged with CTX-M-1-Escherichia coli at day 0 in experiment 1, and at day 5 in experiments 2 and 3.
| Experiment | Variable | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isolator | 2 (101 – none, reference) | 1 |
| 3 (101 – CEP) | 0.25 (0.09–0.72) | ||
| 4 (101 – CEP) | 0.24 (0.08–0.68) | ||
| 5 (102 – none) | 0.27 (0.09–0.76) | ||
| 6 (102 – CEP) | 0.74 (0.25–2.20) | ||
| 7 (102 – CEP) | 0.89 (0.29–2.71) | ||
| Seeder or contact bird | Seeder (reference) | 1 | |
| Contact | 0.67 (0.34–1.30) | ||
| Body weight at day 0 (hatch) | 0.99 (0.91–1.09) | ||
| Body weight at day 21 | 1.00 (1.00–1.01) | ||
| Sex | Male (reference) | 1 | |
| Female | 0.91 (0.43–1.91) | ||
| 2 | Isolator | 5 (102 – none, reference) | 1 |
| 6 (102 – CEP) | 0.08 (0.02–0.42) | ||
| 7 (102 – CEP) | 3.71 × 10−3 (2.71 × 10−4–0.05) | ||
| Seeder or contact bird | Seeder (reference) | 1 | |
| Contact | 1.09 (0.40–2.98) | ||
| Body weight at day 0 (hatch) | 0.93 (0.800–1.09) | ||
| Body weight at day 21 | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) | ||
| Sex | Male (reference) | 1 | |
| Female | 0.64 (0.25–1.60) | ||
| Total | 1.06 (0.64–1.74) | ||
| 3 | Isolator | 2 (102 – none, reference) | 1 |
| 6 (102 – SYN) | 0.07 (0.01–0.39) | ||
| 7 (102 – SYN) | 1.29 (0.39–4.28) | ||
| 8 (102 – SYN) | 3.11 (0.97–10.05) | ||
| Seeder or contact bird | Seeder (reference) | 1 | |
| Contact | 0.43 (0.20–0.94) | ||
| Body weight at day 0 (hatch) | 1.03 (0.94–1.13) | ||
| Body weight at day 21 | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) | ||
| Total | 1.18 (0.80–1.74) |
Abbreviations: CEP, competitive exclusion product; HR, hazard ratio; SYN, selection of pre- and probiotics.
Isolator number, dose level of challenge (101 or 102), and intervention (none, CEP, or SYN).
HR, indicating the ratio between the hazard of colonization with CTX-M-1-E. coli in the mentioned group and the reference group. A ratio of <1 indicates a smaller hazard, and a ratio of >1 indicates a higher hazard.
Figure 1Survival curve of time until colonization of CTX-M-1-Escherichia coli for experiments 2 and 3, after challenge at day 5 with dose 102 cfu/mL. Abbreviations: CEP, competitive exclusion product; Exp, experiment; SYN, selection of pre- and probiotics.
Detection (+/−) and quantification (log10 cfu/g feces) of CTX-M-1-Escherichia coli in broilers in experiments 2 (dose 102 cfu/mL) and 3, determined at n hours p.i. at days 5 to 7 (8:00 am and 4:00 pm), 8 to 14, 16, 19, and 21 (8:00 am).
| Exp | Iso | Dose | Intervention | Bird ID | Seeder or contact | D5 8:00 | D5 4:00 | D6 8:00 | D6 4:00 | D7 8:00 | D7 4:00 | D8 8:00 | D9 8:00 | D10 8:00 | D11 8:00 | D12 8:00 | D13 8:00 | D14 8:00 | D16 8:00 | D19 8:00 | D21 8:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hours p.i. | 0 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 48 | 56 | 72 | 96 | 120 | 144 | 168 | 192 | 216 | 264 | 336 | 384 | |||||
| 2 | 5 | 102 | None | 205 | Seeder | − | + | 3.63 | + | 5.48 | + | 5.78 | 3.57 | 6.52 | 6.63 | 7.57 | 5.44 | 6.40 | 3.88 | 5.57 | 5.25 |
| 5 | 102 | None | 212 | Seeder | − | − | 2.57 | + | 4.63 | + | 5.57 | 4.52 | 4.48 | 4.63 | 2.57 | 4.57 | 5.36 | 4.52 | 4.63 | 4.70 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 275 | Seeder | − | − | 3.52 | + | 4.63 | + | 2.57 | 5.78 | 3.63 | 3.52 | 4.57 | 4.30 | 5.05 | 3.52 | 6.78 | 4.30 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 289 | Seeder | − | − | 2.63 | + | 4.52 | + | 3.48 | 3.44 | 3.78 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 2.44 | 2.52 | 4.70 | 4.78 | 6.36 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 296 | Seeder | + | − | − | + | 3.63 | + | 3.63 | 5.40 | 6.52 | 3.57 | 4.57 | 5.52 | 3.48 | 6.63 | 4.70 | 5.22 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 226 | Contact | − | − | − | + | 2.48 | + | 3.57 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 4.63 | 7.88 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.57 | 4.48 | 5.12 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 233 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.33 | + | 2.52 | 2.40 | 2.78 | 2.52 | 5.52 | 3.40 | 4.70 | 4.63 | 6.57 | 6.13 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 240 | Contact | − | − | − | + | 2.70 | + | 3.52 | 2.70 | 2.48 | 2.70 | 3.27 | 2.63 | 2.57 | 3.57 | 4.57 | 4.27 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 261 | Contact | − | − | 2.63 | − | 2.44 | + | 2.33 | 2.48 | 3.52 | 3.44 | 2.27 | 2.63 | 3.44 | 6.57 | 5.44 | 4.20 | |
| 5 | 102 | None | 282 | Contact | − | + | 2.63 | + | 4.30 | + | 5.57 | 7.44 | 6.48 | 4.70 | 4.78 | 5.10 | 3.63 | 4.78 | 4.44 | 7.52 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 220 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.88 | 2.48 | 4.57 | 3.70 | 5.57 | 4.78 | 2.52 | 4.63 | 4.57 | 3.63 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 234 | Seeder | − | − | 2.27 | + | 2.40 | + | 3.36 | 4.40 | 5.52 | 5.78 | 3.78 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 5.52 | 4.48 | 5.40 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 241 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | 2.44 | − | 2.48 | 2.40 | 3.70 | 4.63 | 5.63 | 4.48 | 2.57 | 2.63 | 2.52 | 3.40 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 269 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | + | 2.44 | 2.57 | 2.63 | 2.52 | 3.63 | 2.70 | 3.44 | 2.48 | 2.57 | 2.48 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 290 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.44 | 2.36 | 2.57 | 2.48 | 3.52 | 2.52 | 2.63 | 2.48 | 3.63 | 3.33 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 206 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.63 | 3.52 | 4.57 | 4.00 | 5.70 | 2.52 | − | ||||
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 227 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 3.88 | 3.63 | 3.48 | 4.52 | 3.57 | 4.52 | 4.27 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 248 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.70 | 2.57 | 2.48 | 3.70 | 5.63 | 4.78 | 6.57 | 3.57 | 4.48 | 5.70 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 255 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.63 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.63 | 2.57 | 3.95 | 3.22 | 3.57 | 3.48 | 3.18 | |
| 6 | 102 | CEP | 276 | Contact | − | + | − | − | − | + | 2.52 | 2.52 | 3.48 | 4.52 | 5.44 | 2.70 | 3.78 | 5.52 | 5.48 | 5.57 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 207 | Seeder | − | − | 2.78 | + | 3.63 | + | 2.57 | 2.52 | 3.57 | 4.63 | 3.70 | 3.63 | 5.88 | 4.78 | 4.57 | 4.33 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 242 | Seeder | − | + | − | − | − | − | − | − | 4.00 | 2.78 | 3.78 | 4.63 | 3.63 | 5.00 | 4.36 | 3.44 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 277 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.78 | 2.70 | 2.57 | 3.63 | 3.57 | 3.48 | 4.30 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 291 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.57 | 2.78 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 4.33 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 298 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.63 | 5.57 | 4.88 | 4.63 | 5.70 | 3.63 | 4.44 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 214 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 3.44 | 3.63 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.36 | 3.57 | 3.48 | 4.57 | 4.27 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 235 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | 2.78 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.48 | 3.57 | 3.52 | 4.48 | 4.44 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 256 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | 2.63 | 2.52 | 3.63 | 3.52 | 2.30 | 4.52 | 4.44 | 5.25 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 263 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.57 | 2.52 | 2.70 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 3.36 | 3.70 | 2.44 | 2.40 | |
| 7 | 102 | CEP | 284 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.63 | 3.48 | 3.57 | 5.57 | 2.70 | 3.78 | 3.88 | 3.25 | |
| 3 | 2 | 102 | None | 309 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 2.30 | + | 2.52 | 2.52 | 4.40 | 4.48 | 3.36 | 4.27 | 4.25 | 3.57 | 3.22 | 5.27 |
| 2 | 102 | None | 333 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 3.25 | + | 4.57 | 4.48 | 3.57 | 5.44 | 5.25 | 5.40 | 7.25 | 5.48 | 6.03 | 5.06 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 341 | Seeder | − | − | 3.70 | + | 4.22 | + | 5.48 | 2.48 | 5.57 | 4.33 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 5.57 | 4.52 | 5.18 | 6.05 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 349 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 2.70 | + | 3.57 | 3.48 | 5.48 | 4.15 | 6.25 | 5.15 | 3.36 | 4.48 | 5.18 | 5.33 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 373 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | + | 2.36 | 4.52 | 4.15 | 5.48 | 5.30 | 3.57 | 5.20 | 5.52 | 5.25 | 5.33 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 317 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 3.57 | 4.40 | 4.70 | 7.30 | 4.33 | 5.52 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 5.12 | 6.06 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 325 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.13 | + | 2.52 | 3.44 | 5.44 | 6.13 | 5.36 | 5.27 | 5.25 | 4.57 | 4.27 | 7.20 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 357 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 3.48 | 4.57 | 4.57 | 5.33 | 6.18 | 7.20 | 6.33 | 4.88 | 5.36 | 6.33 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 365 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 4.40 | 3.52 | 4.52 | 7.40 | 4.30 | 6.00 | 6.22 | 4.57 | 4.25 | 5.84 | |
| 2 | 102 | None | 381 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 2.57 | 4.52 | 4.70 | 4.22 | 5.18 | 4.57 | 4.27 | 5.63 | 4.44 | 5.40 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 305 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.33 | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.13 | 5.15 | 5.33 | 6.40 | 3.52 | 4.36 | 5.48 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 329 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | 2.27 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 5.40 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 337 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | − | 2.33 | 4.48 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 353 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.01 | 2.12 | 2.36 | 2.52 | 4.20 | 4.57 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 361 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | + | 2.36 | − | 2.52 | − | 2.57 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 2.78 | 4.15 | 5.36 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 313 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 1.85 | 2.15 | 2.40 | 2.15 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 3.36 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 321 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.52 | − | − | − | 3.00 | 2.06 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 3.48 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 369 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.57 | 3.13 | 3.48 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 377 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.57 | 2.40 | 3.18 | 2.63 | 2.48 | 4.30 | |
| 6 | 102 | SYN | 385 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | 2.33 | 4.57 | 4.70 | 3.33 | 4.63 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 314 | Seeder | − | − | 2.01 | + | 2.40 | + | 4.20 | 2.36 | 3.25 | 4.06 | 4.30 | 3.70 | 4.12 | + | 4.25 | 3.33 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 338 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 4.48 | + | 6.40 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 4.52 | 3.57 | 4.63 | 3.70 | 3.63 | 5.12 | 4.20 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 354 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | + | − | 3.57 | 2.30 | 5.18 | 4.12 | 4.36 | 3.44 | 3.63 | 6.27 | 4.52 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 370 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | − | + | 3.27 | 4.57 | 3.48 | 3.27 | 3.12 | 3.36 | 3.40 | − | 6.44 | 3.44 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 394 | Seeder | − | − | − | − | 2.57 | + | 3.48 | 3.63 | 4.20 | 4.13 | 4.33 | 4.25 | 5.88 | 4.88 | 3.03 | 4.25 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 322 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 3.63 | + | 3.48 | 3.57 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 5.52 | 5.30 | 4.52 | 4.78 | 5.20 | 5.52 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 330 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 3.44 | + | 2.27 | 3.57 | 4.44 | 3.70 | 4.20 | 5.44 | 5.25 | 4.48 | 5.36 | 4.30 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 362 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.33 | + | 2.48 | 2.78 | 5.05 | 5.22 | 3.33 | 6.27 | 4.70 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.15 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 378 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 3.27 | 3.70 | 2.95 | 4.33 | 5.57 | 5.22 | 6.44 | 5.70 | 6.36 | 6.70 | |
| 7 | 102 | SYN | 386 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 3.27 | 3.44 | + | 5.18 | 4.05 | 4.30 | 4.44 | 3.70 | 4.12 | 5.44 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 315 | Seeder | − | − | 2.52 | + | 4.57 | + | 3.33 | 3.52 | 5.48 | 2.91 | 3.85 | 3.40 | 3.18 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 2.78 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 347 | Seeder | − | − | 2.57 | + | 2.52 | + | 3.44 | 4.25 | 4.57 | 3.33 | + | 3.52 | 3.52 | 2.40 | 2.44 | 4.57 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 355 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 5.36 | + | 5.44 | 6.12 | 4.27 | 3.22 | 4.30 | 3.10 | 4.12 | 2.52 | 3.40 | 3.15 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 363 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 4.36 | + | 3.48 | 6.40 | 4.88 | 3.70 | 4.63 | 4.48 | 3.63 | 2.78 | 2.44 | 3.52 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 379 | Seeder | − | − | − | + | 4.25 | + | 3.70 | 4.10 | 3.63 | 4.12 | 3.33 | 4.18 | 4.48 | 2.63 | 2.27 | 3.25 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 307 | Contact | − | − | − | − | − | + | 4.00 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 6.27 | 3.33 | 3.08 | 3.44 | 2.70 | + | 3.40 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 323 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.48 | + | 2.30 | 2.99 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 4.30 | 4.27 | 3.57 | 3.88 | 3.52 | 4.36 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 331 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.25 | + | 4.63 | 4.44 | 2.63 | 4.22 | 3.33 | 4.40 | 4.48 | − | 3.20 | 4.52 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 387 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.40 | + | 2.78 | 3.63 | 4.44 | 4.27 | 3.36 | 3.27 | 2.52 | 2.70 | 3.13 | 5.57 | |
| 8 | 102 | SYN | 395 | Contact | − | − | − | − | 2.18 | + | 3.48 | 4.36 | 4.40 | 4.36 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 4.44 | 3.52 | 3.06 | 3.70 | |
Abbreviations: CEP, competitive exclusion product; Exp, experiment; Iso, isolator; p.i., post inoculation; SYN, selection of pre- and probiotics.
+ in quantification series are broilers excreting CTX-M-1-E. coli (i.e., growth of E. coli on MacConkey + cefotaxime), but excretion values were missing.
Chick died.
Transmission coefficients (β, 95% CI) for experiments 2 and 3, using an SI model, for the basic model (assuming I-birds start excreting at the moment of the first positive cloaca swab) and the alternative model (assuming I-birds start excreting half an interval before the first positive cloaca swab).
| Transmission coefficient ( | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic model | Alternative model | |||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| (day−1) | (day−2) | (cfu × day)−1 | (day−1) | (day−2) | (cfu × day)−1 | |
| Control | 2.93 (1.38–5.40) | 0.40 (0.19–0.76) | 0.31 (0.10–0.57) | 2.19 (1.09–3.91) | 0.27 (0.13–0.49) | 0.31 (0.10–0.57) |
| CEP | 4.08 (0.76–19.43) | 0.30 (0.05–1.48) | 0.12 (0.15–0.56)∗ | 2.57 (0.51–11.47) | 0.19 (0.04–0.87) | 0.12 (0.15–0.56)∗ |
| SYN | 2.22 (0.46–9.96) | 0.12 (0.02–0.57)∗ | 0.14 (0.02–0.63)∗∗ | 1.58 (0.35–6.57) | 0.09 (0.02–0.40)∗ | 0.14 (0.02–0.63)∗∗ |
| AIC | 82.5 | 87.8 | 102.0 | 78.7 | 86.8 | 102.0 |
Expected number of cases (C) in model 1: , model 2: and model 3: In model 3, cumulative excretion (cfu/g feces) is independent of the number of I-birds and is therefore independent of the assumption regarding the start of excretion.
Statistically different transmission coefficients compared to the control group: ∗P < 0.05, ∗∗P < 0.10.
Abbreviations: AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; CEP, competitive exclusion product; I-birds, infectious birds; SI model, susceptible infectious model; SYN, selection of pre- and probiotics.