Steven M Goodreau1, Emily D Pollock2, Li Yan Wang3, Lisa C Barrios3, Richard L Dunville3, Maria V Aslam4, David A Katz5, Rachel Hart-Malloy6, Elizabeth M Rosenthal7, Monica Trigg8, Megan Fields8, Deven T Hamilton9, Eli S Rosenberg7. 1. Department of Anthropology, University of Washington, Seattle; Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle. Electronic address: goodreau@uw.edu. 2. Department of Anthropology, University of Washington, Seattle; Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle. 3. Division of Adolescent and School Health, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. 4. Office of the Director, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. 5. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle. 6. AIDS Institute, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University at Albany School of Public Health, State University of New York, Rensselaer. 7. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University at Albany School of Public Health, State University of New York, Rensselaer. 8. Department of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA. 9. Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle.
Abstract
PURPOSE: Adolescents aged 13-18 years bear a large burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and changing adolescent sexual risk behavior is a key component of reducing this burden. We demonstrate a novel publicly available modeling tool (teen-SPARC) to help state and local health departments predict the impact of behavioral change on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV burden among adolescents. METHODS: Teen-SPARC is built in Excel for familiarity and ease and parameterized using data from CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. We present teen-SPARC's methods, including derivation of national parameters and instructions to obtain local parameters. We model multiple scenarios of increasing condom use and estimate the impact on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV incidence, comparing national and New York State (NYS) results. RESULTS: A 1% annual increase in condom use (consistent with Healthy People 2020 goals) could prevent nearly 10,000 cases of STIs nationwide. Increases in condom use of 17.1%, 2.2%, and 25.5% in NYS would be necessary to avert 1000 cases of gonorrhea, 1000 cases of chlamydia, and 10 cases of HIV infection, respectively. Additional results disaggregate outcomes by age, sex, partner sex, jurisdiction, and pathogen. CONCLUSION: Teen-SPARC may be able to assist health departments aiming to tailor behavioral interventions for STI prevention among adolescents.
PURPOSE: Adolescents aged 13-18 years bear a large burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and changing adolescent sexual risk behavior is a key component of reducing this burden. We demonstrate a novel publicly available modeling tool (teen-SPARC) to help state and local health departments predict the impact of behavioral change on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV burden among adolescents. METHODS: Teen-SPARC is built in Excel for familiarity and ease and parameterized using data from CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. We present teen-SPARC's methods, including derivation of national parameters and instructions to obtain local parameters. We model multiple scenarios of increasing condom use and estimate the impact on gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV incidence, comparing national and New York State (NYS) results. RESULTS: A 1% annual increase in condom use (consistent with Healthy People 2020 goals) could prevent nearly 10,000 cases of STIs nationwide. Increases in condom use of 17.1%, 2.2%, and 25.5% in NYS would be necessary to avert 1000 cases of gonorrhea, 1000 cases of chlamydia, and 10 cases of HIV infection, respectively. Additional results disaggregate outcomes by age, sex, partner sex, jurisdiction, and pathogen. CONCLUSION: Teen-SPARC may be able to assist health departments aiming to tailor behavioral interventions for STI prevention among adolescents.
Keywords:
Adolescents; Chlamydia infections (epidemiology); Gonorrhea (epidemiology); HIV-1 (epidemiology); Mathematical model; Sexual behavior; United States
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