Laura Carlson1, Sarah Pickard2, Kimberlee Gauvreau2, Christopher Baird3, Tal Geva1, Pedro Del Nido1, Meena Nathan4. 1. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts. 2. Department of Cardiology, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston Massachusetts; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts. 3. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts; Department of Surgery, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts. 4. Department of Cardiac Surgery, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts. Electronic address: meena.nathan@cardio.chboston.org.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several factors predict reintervention for subaortic stenosis (SubAS): age, preoperative left ventricular outflow tract gradient, distance from the obstructive subaortic ridge to the aortic valve, and peeling of membrane from the aortic/mitral valves. We sought to develop a prediction rule to categorize risk of reintervention for recurrent SubAS and guide follow-up in patients with discrete SubAS. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent SubAS resection between 1984 and 2016. Our primary outcome was reintervention for recurrent SubAS after discharge. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used for time-to-event analysis of any reintervention. Multivariable models were used to create a prediction rule. We excluded patients without 3 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Of 172 patients, 21 (12.2%) required reintervention. The characteristics predicting reintervention were age younger than 2 years (P < .001), preoperative left ventricular outflow tract gradient of 65 mm Hg or more (P = .011), peeling of membrane from the mitral valve (P < .001), distance from the membrane to the aortic valve of less than 5 mm (P < .001), prior complex operation (P = .035), other left-sided heart lesions (P = .008), and aortic annulus z-score of -2.5 or less (P < .001). Our final prediction rule includes age, membrane to aortic valve distance, and other left-sided heart lesions each scored as 1 point. For patients with a score of 1 or less, 4% required a reintervention compared with 34% with a score of 2 or more. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction rule that incorporates the patient's age at the index operation, membrane to aortic valve distance, and associated left-sided heart lesions can determine the likelihood of reintervention for recurrent SubAS.
BACKGROUND: Several factors predict reintervention for subaortic stenosis (SubAS): age, preoperative left ventricular outflow tract gradient, distance from the obstructive subaortic ridge to the aortic valve, and peeling of membrane from the aortic/mitral valves. We sought to develop a prediction rule to categorize risk of reintervention for recurrent SubAS and guide follow-up in patients with discrete SubAS. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent SubAS resection between 1984 and 2016. Our primary outcome was reintervention for recurrent SubAS after discharge. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used for time-to-event analysis of any reintervention. Multivariable models were used to create a prediction rule. We excluded patients without 3 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Of 172 patients, 21 (12.2%) required reintervention. The characteristics predicting reintervention were age younger than 2 years (P < .001), preoperative left ventricular outflow tract gradient of 65 mm Hg or more (P = .011), peeling of membrane from the mitral valve (P < .001), distance from the membrane to the aortic valve of less than 5 mm (P < .001), prior complex operation (P = .035), other left-sided heart lesions (P = .008), and aortic annulus z-score of -2.5 or less (P < .001). Our final prediction rule includes age, membrane to aortic valve distance, and other left-sided heart lesions each scored as 1 point. For patients with a score of 1 or less, 4% required a reintervention compared with 34% with a score of 2 or more. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction rule that incorporates the patient's age at the index operation, membrane to aortic valve distance, and associated left-sided heart lesions can determine the likelihood of reintervention for recurrent SubAS.