| Literature DB >> 32685595 |
John E Schneider1, Jonathan Romanowsky2, Philipp Schuetz3,4,5, Ivana Stojanovic1, Henry K Cheng2, Oliver Liesenfeld2, Ljubomir Buturovic2, Timothy E Sweeney2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early identification of acute infections and sepsis remains an unmet medical need. While early detection and initiation of treatment reduces mortality, inappropriate treatment leads to adverse events and the development of antimicrobial resistance. Current diagnostic and prognostic solutions, including procalcitonin, lack required accuracy. A novel blood-based host response test, HostDx™ Sepsis by Inflammatix, Inc., assesses the likelihood of a bacterial infection, the likelihood of a viral infection, and the severity of the condition.Entities:
Keywords: Acute Respiratory Tract Infection; Cost Impact; Diagnosis; Emergency Department; Host response; Inflammatix; Risk Assessment; Sepsis
Year: 2020 PMID: 32685595 PMCID: PMC7299497 DOI: 10.36469/jheor.2020.12637
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Health Econ Outcomes Res ISSN: 2326-697X
Figure 1Suggested Clinical Actions for All Combinations of Standard of Care (with Procalcitonin) or HostDx Sepsis Predictions
Figure 2Decision Tree for ED Patients with Suspected ARTI
(A) All 144 possible combinations of bacterial, viral, and 30-day mortality prediction results and corresponding ground truths. (B) Decision tree for the cost impact model. Probabilities for patients being placed into each prediction-ground truth combination for each scenario were generated from simulations based on test performance and disease prevalence data.
Baseline Epidemiology and Clinical Parameter Values
| Epidemiology & Clinical Parameters | Base Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Prevalence | ||
| Bacterial infection only | 0.25 | Assumption |
| Viral infection only | 0.45 | Assumption |
| Bacterial-viral co-infection | 0.10 | Assumption |
| No infection | 0.20 | Assumption |
| Mortality risk | 0.10 | Assumption |
| Test Accuracy | ||
| Base case | ||
| Bacterial AUC | 0.80 | |
| Viral AUC | 0.80 | |
| Mortality AUC | 0.78 | |
| HostDx Sepsis | ||
| Bacterial AUC | 0.85 | |
| Viral AUC | 0.90 | |
| Mortality AUC | 0.88 | |
| Clinical Outcomes, Initial Diagnosis Admissions | ||
| Antibiotic days: ED | 3.18 | |
| Antibiotic days: Hospital ward | 5.02 | |
| Antibiotic days: ICU | 6.86 | |
| Length of stay: short hospital ward | 1.77 | |
| Length of stay: ICU | 4.85 | |
| Mortality: septic patients in ICU (viral) | 23.0% | |
| Mortality: reduction if timely admit | 30.0% | |
| Mortality: ARTI patients | 10.0% | |
| Mortality: viral infection | 6.7% | |
| Clinical Outcomes, Rehospitalization Admissions | ||
| ICU length of stay | 8.30 | |
| Non-survivors length of stay | 19.90 | |
Baseline Cost Parameter Values
| Cost Parameters | Base Value (US$) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| PCR viral testing | $129.00 | |
| Blood culture testing | $290.00 | |
| Oseltamivir (episode of care treatment) | $82.00 | |
| Antibiotics cost (oral) outpatient | $32.33 | |
| Antibiotics cost (oral and IV) hospital setting | $108.67 | |
| Antibiotics cost (IV) a day (ICU setting) | $277.50 | |
| Hospital ward per day ARTIs cost | $2285.00 | Calculation |
| ICU cost per day | $4300.00 | |
| Emergency department cost, including procalcitonin testing | $207 | Assumption |
| Missed bacterial infection, no mortality: +1 hospital day | $2869.88 | Assumption/Calculation |
| Missed bacterial infection, with mortality | $51 680.76 | Assumption/Calculation |
| Missed mortality, no bacterial | $37 730.51 | Assumption/Calculation |
| HostDx Sepsis cost | $0 | Assumption |
Costs are unknown, not included in model.
Expected Costs and Outcomes, SOC (standard of care) vs HostDx Sepsis
| SOC | HostDx Sepsis | Difference (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hospital days | 2.19 | 1.38 | −0.80 (−36.7%) |
| Antibiotic days | 5.05 | 3.56 | −1.49 (−29.5%) |
| 30-day mortality | 12.3% | 10.6% | −1.67% (−13.64%) |
| Total costs (per person) | US$6311 | US$4337 | US$1974 (−31.3%) |
| Total costs (1000 cohort) | US$6 311 153 | US$4 337 117 | US$1 974 036 (−31.3%) |
Model estimates did not include costs of HostDx Sepsis.
Outcomes Segmented by Ground Truth Patient Status for 1000 Simulated Patients
| Ground Truth | % of Patients in Band | Cost (US$) | Antibiotic Days | Hospital Days | ICU Days | 30-day Mortality | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bacterial Infection | Viral Infection | 30-day Mortality | |||||||
| No | No | No | 26 | $1 360 892 | 1194 | 473 | 22 | 0 | |
| No | No | Yes | 3 | $473 439 | 243 | 166 | 12 | 36 | |
| No | Yes | No | 32 | $1 671 063 | 1458 | 579 | 27 | 0 | |
| No | Yes | Yes | 4 | $580 101 | 295 | 203 | 14 | 44 | |
| Yes | No | No | 14 | $748 304 | 709 | 256 | 12 | 0 | |
| Yes | No | Yes | 2 | $252 944 | 132 | 89 | 6 | 19 | |
| Yes | Yes | No | 17 | $915 544 | 864 | 313 | 14 | 0 | |
| Yes | Yes | Yes | 2 | $308 866 | 160 | 109 | 7 | 24 | |
| No | No | No | 26 | $724 484 | 714 | 235 | 29 | 0 | |
| No | No | Yes | 3 | $498 111 | 204 | 160 | 45 | 30 | |
| No | Yes | No | 32 | $926 473 | 833 | 298 | 37 | 0 | |
| No | Yes | Yes | 4 | $636 917 | 253 | 203 | 58 | 38 | |
| Yes | No | No | 14 | $451 793 | 596 | 138 | 17 | 0 | |
| Yes | No | Yes | 2 | $263 627 | 133 | 88 | 19 | 18 | |
| Yes | Yes | No | 17 | $530 160 | 679 | 160 | 19 | 0 | |
| Yes | Yes | Yes | 2 | $305 552 | 151 | 103 | 22 | 20 | |
| No | No | No | −$636 408 | −479 | −238 | 7 | 0 | ||
| No | No | Yes | $24 672 | −39 | −6 | 34 | −6 | ||
| No | Yes | No | −$744 590 | −625 | −281 | 10 | 0 | ||
| No | Yes | Yes | $56 816 | −42 | 1 | 43 | −6 | ||
| Yes | No | No | −$296 511 | −113 | −118 | 5 | 0 | ||
| Yes | No | Yes | $10 683 | 1 | −1 | 13 | −2 | ||
| Yes | Yes | No | −$385 384 | −185 | −153 | 5 | 0 | ||
| Yes | Yes | Yes | −$3314 | −10 | −6 | 15 | −3 | ||
Figure 3HostDx Sepsis Changes Proportion of Patients in Each Prediction-Ground Truth Combination, Resulting in Cost Savings
Estimated costs (A) and number of patients (B) were plotted across all 144 possible combinations of predictions and ground truth for the 1000-patient cohort in both base and HostDx Sepsis cases. Magnified views are shown in C and D.
Figure 4Sensitivity Analysis for Cost Savings of Key Input Variables
One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed on key input variables. Most clinical outcomes and cost parameters tested were varied by 20% in each direction. Test accuracies and prevalence parameters were varied up and down based on ranges derived from literature. Red and blue bars indicate the net cost impact if the model was rerun with high-level and low-level estimates of the corresponding parameter, respectively.