Estimation of physiological age at emergence based on traits of the forensically useful adult carrion beetle Necrodes littoralis L. (Silphidae).

The main entomological method for post-mortem interval involves estimation of age for immature insects found on a cadaver. Forensic entomologists frequently use the thermal summation value for the total immature development (K), which is a measure of physiological time needed to complete development of a species (age at emergence). K is highly variable within the species. Its true value for an adult insect may be estimated based on insect traits such as size and sex at maturity. Here, we have tested, if size and sex of adult beetles of Necrodes littoralis may be useful for the estimation of the true K. Necrodes littoralis is a Palearctic carrion beetle that frequently colonizes human cadavers in forest and agricultural environments. General and sex-specific thermal summation models for the emergence and models for the relationship between size of adult beetles and their age at emergence were developed for N. littoralis. The models were subsequently tested in the validation study. The general K for N. littoralis was about 469 (+/-25 SE) accumulated degree-days above the developmental threshold of about 8.5 (+/-0.45 SE) °C. Thermal summation parameters of the sex-specific models revealed minor differences compared to the general model. A true K was negatively related to the beetle size. Methods for the estimation of K represented its true value with different accuracy. The highest accuracy was obtained when K was estimated using beetle weight as a predictor variable and the sex-specific models for the relationship between K and size, although sex contributed slightly to this improvement. Using this method the estimated K represented the true K with the error of 6.3%, while the error for K from the general thermal summation model was about 9.7%. In conclusion, the findings demonstrate that physiological age at emergence of N. littoralis may be accurately predicted based on the adult beetle size. Necrodes littoralis is a second beetle species in which the age at maturity was more accurately represented by size-based estimates of K than K from the general thermal summation model. Therefore, we encourage testing the relationship between K and size in all insect species that are used in forensic entomology; particularly blow flies and flesh flies.