Xiao-Hui Wang1,2, Bing Liao3, Wen-Jie Hu1, Cai-Xue Tu4, Cai-Ling Xiang5, Sheng-Hua Hao4, Xian-Hai Mao5, Xiao-Ming Qiu6, Xiao-Jun Yang6, Xiao Yue1, Ming Kuang1, Bao-Gang Peng1, Shao-Qiang Li1. 1. Department of Liver Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. 2. Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Tumor Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. 3. Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. 4. Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Xiehe Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, People's Republic of China. 5. Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, Changsha, People's Republic of China. 6. Department of Surgery, The Gansu People's Hospital, Lanzhou, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The predictive model of postsurgical recurrence for solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma (SE-HCC) is not well established. The aim of this study was to develop a novel model for prediction of postsurgical recurrence and survival for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 1,081 patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm who underwent curative liver resection from 2003 to 2016 in our center were collected retrospectively and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (n = 811) and the internal validation cohort (n = 270). Eight hundred twenty-three patients selected from another four tertiary hospitals served as the external validation cohort. Postsurgical recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) predictive nomograms were generated. The discriminatory accuracies of the nomograms were compared with six conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems. RESULTS: Tumor size, differentiation, microscopic vascular invasion, preoperative α-fetoprotein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin-to-bilirubin ratio, and blood transfusion were identified as the risk factors associated with RFS and OS. RFS and OS predictive nomograms based on these seven variables were generated. The C-index was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.87) for the RFS-nomogram and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) for the OS-nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. Both C-indices of the two nomograms were substantially higher than those of the six conventional HCC staging systems (0.54-0.74 for RFS; 0.58-0.76 for OS) and those of HCC nomograms reported in literature. CONCLUSION: The novel nomograms were shown to be accurate at predicting postoperative recurrence and OS for patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This multicenter study proposed recurrence or mortality predictive nomograms for patients with hepatitis B virus-related solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. A close postsurgical surveillance protocol and adjuvant therapy should be considered for patients at high risk of recurrence.
BACKGROUND: The predictive model of postsurgical recurrence for solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma (SE-HCC) is not well established. The aim of this study was to develop a novel model for prediction of postsurgical recurrence and survival for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 1,081 patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm who underwent curative liver resection from 2003 to 2016 in our center were collected retrospectively and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (n = 811) and the internal validation cohort (n = 270). Eight hundred twenty-three patients selected from another four tertiary hospitals served as the external validation cohort. Postsurgical recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) predictive nomograms were generated. The discriminatory accuracies of the nomograms were compared with six conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems. RESULTS: Tumor size, differentiation, microscopic vascular invasion, preoperative α-fetoprotein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin-to-bilirubin ratio, and blood transfusion were identified as the risk factors associated with RFS and OS. RFS and OS predictive nomograms based on these seven variables were generated. The C-index was 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79-0.87) for the RFS-nomogram and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) for the OS-nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. Both C-indices of the two nomograms were substantially higher than those of the six conventional HCC staging systems (0.54-0.74 for RFS; 0.58-0.76 for OS) and those of HCC nomograms reported in literature. CONCLUSION: The novel nomograms were shown to be accurate at predicting postoperative recurrence and OS for patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This multicenter study proposed recurrence or mortality predictive nomograms for patients with hepatitis B virus-related solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. A close postsurgical surveillance protocol and adjuvant therapy should be considered for patients at high risk of recurrence.
Authors: E W Steyerberg; F E Harrell; G J Borsboom; M J Eijkemans; Y Vergouwe; J D Habbema Journal: J Clin Epidemiol Date: 2001-08 Impact factor: 6.437
Authors: Ka Wing Ma; Wong Hoi She; Tan To Cheung; Albert Chi Yan Chan; Wing Chiu Dai; James Yan Yue Fung; Chung Mau Lo; Kenneth Siu Ho Chok Journal: Surg Today Date: 2019-01-14 Impact factor: 2.549
Authors: Hidenori Toyoda; Paul B S Lai; James O'Beirne; Charing C Chong; Sarah Berhane; Helen Reeves; Derek Manas; Richard P Fox; Winnie Yeo; Frankie Mo; Anthony W H Chan; Toshifumi Tada; Mercedes Iñarrairaegui; Arndt Vogel; Nora Schweitzer; Stephen L Chan; Bruno Sangro; Takashi Kumada; Philip J Johnson Journal: Br J Cancer Date: 2016-03-29 Impact factor: 7.640