Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Confronting COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the risks in confronting the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the USA using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase.
METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold fast responsiveness, and the ongoing performance till plateau. The Infected Patient's Ratio (IPR) tool was developed to measure the number of patients resulting from one infector during the incubation period. Both IPR and TRA were used together to forecast inflection points, plateau phases, ICUs' and ventilators' breakpoints, and the Total Fatality Ratio.
RESULTS: In Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the USA, an inflection point is predicted within the first 15 days of April, to arrive at a plateau after another 30 to 80 days. Variations in IPR drop are expected due to variations in lockdown timing by each country, the extent of adherence to it, and the number of performed tests in each.
CONCLUSIONS: Both qualitative (TRA) and quantitative (IPR) tools can be used together for assessing and minimizing the pandemic risks and for more precise forecasting.