[Estimating the climatic capacity of food security in Henan Province, China under the future climate change scenarios].

To explore the effects of future climate change on food production in Henan Province, the climate potential productivity and its change characteristics in Henan Province were calculated by agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. This study was based on the production potential and climate resource carrying capacity of summer maize and winter wheat, combined with the observation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2017 and the meteorological data under two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2041-2080. With the grain demand index under different living standards, we analyzed climate carrying capacity and surplus space of Henan Pro-vince. The results showed that the average climatic potential productivity of maize was 18408.87 kg·hm-2 from 1961 to 2017, with high values in the middle and east, and low values in the west. Compared with the reference period (1981-2010), climatic potential productivity of maize under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 13.0% and 8.0% respectively, with the high value center shifting from the east to the southwest of Henan. The average climatic potential productivity of wheat was 10889.79 kg·hm-2, which was high in the middle region and low in the north. Compared with the reference period, climatic potential productivity of wheat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 decreased by 18.6% and 21.7%, respectively. Under the current condition of subsistence and well-off food demand, the maximum carrying capacity of climate resources respectively could support 252 million and 183 million people. In 2070s (2071-2080), the average supporting population of the maximum climate resource carrying capacity (Cmax) would decrease. Compared with the reference period, Cmax under the level of well-off and subsistence would decrease by 9.7% and 18.4% respectively in RCP4.5 scenario, and 7.7% and 16.6% respectively in RCP8.5 scenario. Under current climate condition, the relative surplus rate of climate resources in Henan Province ranged from -93.0% to 356.9%. Compared with the reference period, the relative residual rate of climate resources in the future would reduce nearly 40%.