Ruben Hernaez1, Yan Liu2, Jennifer R Kramer2, Abbas Rana3, Hashem B El-Serag4, Fasiha Kanwal4. 1. Section of Gastroenterology, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America; Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America; Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College. Electronic address: ruben.hernaez@bcm.edu. 2. Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America; Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College. 3. Section of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America. 4. Section of Gastroenterology, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America; Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America; Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score captures the clinical severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared observed 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF with expected mortality based on the calculated MELD-Na and examined the consequences of underestimating clinical severity. METHODS: We identified patients with ACLF during hospitalization for cirrhosis in 127 VA hospitals between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2014. We examined MELD-Na scores by ACLF presence and grade. We used actual and observed 90-day mortality to estimate a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by ACLF presence and grade. We used transplant center-specific median MELD-Na at transplantation (MMaT) to estimate the proportion likely to receive priority for liver transplantation (LT) based on MELD-Na alone. RESULTS: Of 71,894 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis, 18,979 (26.4%) patients met the criteria for ACLF on admission. The median (P25-P75) MELD-Na on admission was 26 (22-30) for ACLF compared to 15 (12-20) for patients without ACLF; it was 24 (21-27), 27 (23-31), and 32 (26-37) for ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively. At 90 days, 40.0% of patients with ACLF died (30.8%, 41.6% and 68.8% with ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively) compared to 21.3% of patients without ACLF. Compared to the expected death rate based on MELD-Na, mortality risk was higher for patients with ACLF, SMR (95% CI): 1.52 (1.48-1.52), 1.46 (1.41-1.51), 1.50 (1.44-1.55), 1.66 (1.58-1.74) for overall ACLF, ACLF-1, -2 and -3, respectively. Only 9.1% of patients with ACLF reached the national median MELD-Na of 35 and between 17.3% to 35.1% exceeded the MMaT at any center. During index admission, 589 (0.8%) patients with ACLF were considered for LT evaluation and 16 (0.1%) were listed for LT. CONCLUSIONS: In a US cohort of hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, MELD-Na did not capture 90-day mortality risk in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF are at a disadvantage in the current MELD-Na-based system. LAY SUMMARY: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of death. Liver transplantation may be the only curative treatment for these patients. A score called model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) helps guide donor liver allocation for transplantation in the United States. The higher the MELD-Na score in a patient, the more likely that a patient receives a liver transplant. Our study data showed that MELD-Na score underestimates the risk of dying at 90 days in patients with ACLF. Thus, physicians need to start liver transplant evaluation early instead of waiting for a high MELD-Na number. Published by Elsevier B.V.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score captures the clinical severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared observed 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF with expected mortality based on the calculated MELD-Na and examined the consequences of underestimating clinical severity. METHODS: We identified patients with ACLF during hospitalization for cirrhosis in 127 VA hospitals between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2014. We examined MELD-Na scores by ACLF presence and grade. We used actual and observed 90-day mortality to estimate a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by ACLF presence and grade. We used transplant center-specific median MELD-Na at transplantation (MMaT) to estimate the proportion likely to receive priority for liver transplantation (LT) based on MELD-Na alone. RESULTS: Of 71,894 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis, 18,979 (26.4%) patients met the criteria for ACLF on admission. The median (P25-P75) MELD-Na on admission was 26 (22-30) for ACLF compared to 15 (12-20) for patients without ACLF; it was 24 (21-27), 27 (23-31), and 32 (26-37) for ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively. At 90 days, 40.0% of patients with ACLF died (30.8%, 41.6% and 68.8% with ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively) compared to 21.3% of patients without ACLF. Compared to the expected death rate based on MELD-Na, mortality risk was higher for patients with ACLF, SMR (95% CI): 1.52 (1.48-1.52), 1.46 (1.41-1.51), 1.50 (1.44-1.55), 1.66 (1.58-1.74) for overall ACLF, ACLF-1, -2 and -3, respectively. Only 9.1% of patients with ACLF reached the national median MELD-Na of 35 and between 17.3% to 35.1% exceeded the MMaT at any center. During index admission, 589 (0.8%) patients with ACLF were considered for LT evaluation and 16 (0.1%) were listed for LT. CONCLUSIONS: In a US cohort of hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, MELD-Na did not capture 90-day mortality risk in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF are at a disadvantage in the current MELD-Na-based system. LAY SUMMARY: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of death. Liver transplantation may be the only curative treatment for these patients. A score called model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) helps guide donor liver allocation for transplantation in the United States. The higher the MELD-Na score in a patient, the more likely that a patient receives a liver transplant. Our study data showed that MELD-Na score underestimates the risk of dying at 90 days in patients with ACLF. Thus, physicians need to start liver transplant evaluation early instead of waiting for a high MELD-Na number. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Entities:
Keywords:
Cirrhosis; Natural history; Outcomes; Prognosis; Transplant center
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