| Literature DB >> 32521059 |
Bjørn Peare Bartholdy1, Elena Sandoval1, Menno L P Hoogland1, Sarah A Schrader1.
Abstract
Sex estimation is an important part of creating a biological profile for skeletal remains in forensics. The commonly used methods for developing sex estimation equations are discriminant function analysis (DFA) and logistic regression (LogR). LogR equations provide a probability of the predicted sex, while DFA relies on cutoff points to segregate males and females, resulting in a rigid dichotomization of the sexes. This is problematic because sexual dimorphism exists along a continuum and there can be considerable overlap in trait expression between the sexes. In this study, we used humeral measurements to compare the performance of DFA and LogR and found them to be very similar under multiple conditions. The overall cross-validated (leave-one-out) accuracy of DFA (75.76-95.14%) was slightly higher than LogR (75.76-93.82%) for simple and multiple variable equations, and also performed better under varying sample sizes (94.03% vs. 93.78%). Three of five DFA equations outperformed LogR under the B index, while all five LogR equations outperformed the DFA equations under the Q index. Both methods saw an improvement in overall accuracy (DFA: 86.74-95.79%; LogR: 86.74-95.76%) when individuals with a classification probability lower than 0.80 were excluded. Additionally, we propose a method for calculating additional cutoff points (PMarks) based on posterior probability values. In conclusion, we recommend using LogR over DFA due to the increased flexibility, robusticity, and benefits for future users of the statistical models; however, if DFA is preferred, use of the proposed PMarks facilitates future analysis while avoiding unnecessary dichotomization.Entities:
Keywords: anthropometrics; discriminant function; humerus; linear discriminant analysis; logistic regression; sex estimation; sexual dimorphism
Year: 2020 PMID: 32521059 PMCID: PMC7497157 DOI: 10.1111/1556-4029.14482
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Forensic Sci ISSN: 0022-1198 Impact factor: 1.832
Assumptions of discriminant function analysis and logistic regression.
| Model | Assumptions |
|---|---|
| Discriminant function analysis | Multivariate normality. |
| Absence of outliers. | |
| Independence of errors (each response comes from independent case). | |
| Homogeneity of variance–covariance matrices within groups. | |
| Linearity of pairs of predictors within groups. | |
| Absence of multicollinearity among predictors. | |
| Logistic regression | Absence of outliers. |
| Independence of errors (each response comes from independent case). | |
| Linearity between logit of the outcome and predictor variables. | |
| Absence of multicollinearity among predictors. |
Mean values for the humeral measurements of male and female individuals including the mean difference with 90% confidence intervals calculated using Welch’s two sample t‐test.
| Measurement | Mean (mm) | SD | Mean Difference | 90% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max length | F: 311.8 | 19.49 | 27.65 | 20.53–34.77 |
| M: 339.4 | 19.33 | |||
| Head diameter | F: 41.62 | 2.312 | 7.726 | 6.773–8.678 |
| M: 49.34 | 2.781 | |||
| Epicondylar breadth | F: 55.31 | 3.282 | 8.441 | 6.883–10.00 |
| M: 63.75 | 4.819 |
90% CI, 90% confidence intervals; SD, standard deviation.
LDA results for simple and multiple variable models.
| Model | Measurement(s) | Coefficients | CV Accuracy (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDF1 | Max length | 0.05149 | 75.76 |
| (intercept) | –16.77 | ||
| LDF2 | Head diameter | 0.3963 | 92.71 |
| (intercept) | –17.81 | ||
| LDF3 | Epicondylar breadth | 0.2493 | 86.67 |
| (intercept) | –14.84 | ||
| LDF4 | Head diameter | 0.3382 | 95.14 |
| Epicondylar breadth | 0.06205 | ||
| (intercept) | |||
| LDF5 | Max length | −0.001785 | 95.14 |
| Head diameter | 0.3431 | ||
| Epicondylar breadth | 0.06354 | ||
| (intercept) | –18.58 |
CV, cross‐validated.
Fig. 1Density plot for LDF4. The straight line (‒‒‒) represents the traditional cutoff point; the dotted lines (∙∙∙), 0.80 PMarks; the dashed lines (‐‐‐), 0.90 PMarks; the dashed and dotted lines (∙‐∙‐∙), 0.95 PMarks. F, female; LD4, discriminant scores; M, male. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
LogR results and model evaluation.
| Model | Measurement | Coefficients | OR | LogLik | AIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LogR1 | Max length | −0.07356 | 0.9291 | −40.54 | 85.07 |
| (intercept) | 24.19 | ||||
| LogR2 | Head diameter | −0.9423 | 0.3897 | −15.16 | 34.32 |
| (intercept) | 42.88 | ||||
| LogR3 | Epicondylar breadth | −0.5220 | 0.5933 | −27.77 | 59.54 |
| (intercept) | 31.16 | ||||
| LogR4 | Head diameter | −0.8329 | 0.4348 | −14.93 | 35.87 |
| Epicondylar breadth | −0.09285 | 0.9113 | |||
| (intercept) | 43.42 | ||||
| LogR5 | Max length | −0.003169 | 0.9968 | −14.93 | 37.86 |
| Head diameter | −0.8254 | 0.4381 | |||
| Epicondylar breadth | −0.09060 | 0.9134 | |||
| (intercept) | 43.97 |
AIC, Akaike information criterion; LogLik, log‐likelihood; OR, odds ratio.
LDA and LogR models with cross‐validated accuracy.
| Model | Decision Probability (cutoff) | Misclassifications (total) | CV Accuracy (%) | Female (%) | Male (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDF1 | 0.5 (0) | 20 (84) | 76.19 | 78.00 | 73.53 |
| 0.8 (± 0.97) | 4 (35) | 88.57 | 91.67 | 81.82 | |
| LDF2 | 0.5 (0) | 6 (84) | 92.86 | 93.75 | 91.67 |
| 0.8 (± 0.46) | 3 (78) |
|
| 93.75 | |
| LDF3 | 0.5 (0) | 12 (84) | 85.71 | 83.33 |
|
| 0.8 (± 0.70) | 3 (63) |
|
| 95.83 | |
| LDF4 | 0.5 (0) | 4 (84) |
|
|
|
| 0.8 (± 0.45) | 3 (78) |
|
| 93.75 | |
| LDF5 | 0.5 (0) | 4 (84) |
|
|
|
| 0.8 (± 0.45) | 3 (78) |
|
| 93.75 | |
| LogR1 | 0.5 | 20 (84) | 76.19 | 78.00 | 73.53 |
| 0.8 | 4 (35) | 88.57 | 91.67 | 81.82 | |
| LogR2 | 0.5 | 5 (84) |
|
|
|
| 0.8 | 3 (77) | 96.10 | 97.78 | 93.75 | |
| LogR3 | 0.5 | 11 (84) |
|
| 85.71 |
| 0.8 | 3 (56) | 94.64 | 93.75 | 95.83 | |
| LogR4 | 0.5 | 5 (84) | 94.05 | 95.74 | 91.89 |
| 0.8 | 3 (77) | 96.10 | 97.78 | 93.75 | |
| LogR5 | 0.5 | 5 (84) | 94.05 | 95.74 | 91.89 |
| 0.8 | 3 (77) | 96.10 | 97.78 | 93.75 |
Decision probability represents the probability level (between 0 and 1) at which the male and female assignment was made, and the cutoff is the discriminant score associated with the probability level. Bold indicates the model that performed best.
Overall accuracy for individuals with lower than 0.8 classification probability.
| Model | Accuracy (%) | Female Accuracy (%) | Male Accuracy (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDF1 | 67.35 | 65.38 | 69.57 |
| LDF2 | 50.00 | 0 | 75.00 |
| LDF3 | 57.14 | 53.33 |
|
| LDF4 |
| 50.00 |
|
| LDF5 |
| 50.00 |
|
| LogR1 | 67.35 | 65.38 | 69.57 |
| LogR2 |
|
|
|
| LogR3 |
|
| 63.63 |
| LogR4 | 71.43 | 50.00 | 80.00 |
| LogR5 | 71.43 | 50.00 | 80.00 |
Bold indicates the model that performed best.
B and Q indices for all LDA and LogR models
| Equation |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| LDF1 | 0.8410 | 0.2973 |
| LDF2 |
| 0.7277 |
| LDF3 | 0.9071 | 0.5225 |
| LDF4 |
| 0.7228 |
| LDF5 |
| 0.7222 |
| LogR1 |
|
|
| LogR2 | 0.9495 |
|
| LogR3 | 0.9071 |
|
| LogR4 | 0.9533 |
|
| LogR5 | 0.9532 |
|
Bold indicates the model that performed best.
Fig. 2The effect of sample size (x‐axis) on the overall accuracy (y‐axis) for the LDF4 (solid line) and LogR4 (dotted line) models. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]