Sensitivity of a data-assimilation system for reconstructing three-dimensional cardiac electrical dynamics.

Modelling of cardiac electrical behaviour has led to important mechanistic insights, but important challenges, including uncertainty in model formulations and parameter values, make it difficult to obtain quantitatively accurate results. An alternative approach is combining models with observations from experiments to produce a data-informed reconstruction of system states over time. Here, we extend our earlier data-assimilation studies using an ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct a three-dimensional time series of states with complex spatio-temporal dynamics using only surface observations of voltage. We consider the effects of several algorithmic and model parameters on the accuracy of reconstructions of known scroll-wave truth states using synthetic observations. In particular, we study the algorithm's sensitivity to parameters governing different parts of the process and its robustness to several model-error conditions. We find that the algorithm can achieve an acceptable level of error in many cases, with the weakest performance occurring for model-error cases and more extreme parameter regimes with more complex dynamics. Analysis of the poorest-performing cases indicates an initial decrease in error followed by an increase when the ensemble spread is reduced. Our results suggest avenues for further improvement through increasing ensemble spread by incorporating additive inflation or using a parameter or multi-model ensemble. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.