Regime shifts in shallow lake ecosystems along an urban-rural gradient in central China.

Due to differential exploitation pressure, ecosystems along the urban to rural gradients often exhibit different status in ecological structure and function. This can be challenging for lake restoration, given the relative strengths, magnitudes and speed of the exploitation. In this paper, we reconstructed the ecological changes over the past century and identified the regime shifts based on subfossil aquatic biota (chironomid records) in three shallow lakes (Shahu, Yanxi and Futou Lake) along an urban-rural gradient in the Yangtze floodplain, China. Our results illustrated the differences among lakes in trajectories, timing of critical transition and current ecological status. Eutrophic chironomid taxa increased markedly and replaced macrophyte-related taxa in urban Shahu Lake and suburban Yanxi Lake, indicated by the shift from a stable, vegetation-dominated state to an alternative, algal-dominated state in 1963 CE and 1975 CE respectively. The ecological regime in rural Futou Lake transited around 1980 CE but it is still in a relatively clear water state with abundant macrophytes due to anthropogenic hydrological controls. The greatest variance of chironomid compositional changes in both Shahu and Yanxi Lake was captured by anthropogenic pollutants, and analyses show that when these pressures are high they may be further amplified by climate warming. Responses along the urban-rural gradient are exemplified by urban Shahu Lake having shifted to a fragile regime with weak resistance and resilience, while rural Futou Lake has stabilized in a new regime with improved ecological resilience. Suburban Yanxi Lake is still moving toward a new state, and as such is unstable, because the types and magnitudes of external stressors are changing with urbanization in the city. It is suggested that active and precise management strategies for lakes should be established along the urban-rural gradient given their distinct development trajectories, drivers and current status.