Peter Jüni1, Martina Rothenbühler2, Pavlos Bobos2, Kevin E Thorpe2, Bruno R da Costa2, David N Fisman2, Arthur S Slutsky2, Dionne Gesink2. 1. Applied Health Research Centre (Jüni, Rothenbühler, Bobos, Thorpe, da Costa, Slutsky) Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St. Michael's Hospital; Department of Medicine and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Jüni), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Ava AG (Rothenbühler), Zürich, Switzerland; Department of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences (Bobos), Western University, London, Ont.; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Thorpe, Fisman, Gesink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Institute of Primary Health Care (da Costa), University of Bern, Switzerland; Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine (Slutsky), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont. peter.juni@utoronto.ca. 2. Applied Health Research Centre (Jüni, Rothenbühler, Bobos, Thorpe, da Costa, Slutsky) Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St. Michael's Hospital; Department of Medicine and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Jüni), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Ava AG (Rothenbühler), Zürich, Switzerland; Department of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences (Bobos), Western University, London, Ont.; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Thorpe, Fisman, Gesink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Institute of Primary Health Care (da Costa), University of Bern, Switzerland; Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine (Slutsky), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether seasonal changes, school closures or other public health interventions will result in a slowdown of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to determine whether epidemic growth is globally associated with climate or public health interventions intended to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of all 144 geopolitical areas worldwide (375 609 cases) with at least 10 COVID-19 cases and local transmission by Mar. 20, 2020, excluding China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Using weighted random-effects regression, we determined the association between epidemic growth (expressed as ratios of rate ratios [RRR] comparing cumulative counts of COVID-19 cases on Mar. 27, 2020, with cumulative counts on Mar. 20, 2020) and latitude, temperature, humidity, school closures, restrictions of mass gatherings, and measures of social distancing during an exposure period 14 days previously (Mar. 7 to 13, 2020). RESULTS: In univariate analyses, there were no associations of epidemic growth with latitude and temperature, but weak negative associations with relative humidity (RRR per 10% 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.96) and absolute humidity (RRR per 5 g/m3 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99). Strong associations were found for restrictions of mass gatherings (RRR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.79), school closures (RRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.78) and measures of social distancing (RRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85). In a multivariable model, there was a strong association with the number of implemented public health interventions (p for trend = 0.001), whereas the association with absolute humidity was no longer significant. INTERPRETATION: Epidemic growth of COVID-19 was not associated with latitude and temperature, but may be associated weakly with relative or absolute humidity. Conversely, public health interventions were strongly associated with reduced epidemic growth.
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether seasonal changes, school closures or other public health interventions will result in a slowdown of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to determine whether epidemic growth is globally associated with climate or public health interventions intended to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of all 144 geopolitical areas worldwide (375 609 cases) with at least 10 COVID-19 cases and local transmission by Mar. 20, 2020, excluding China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Using weighted random-effects regression, we determined the association between epidemic growth (expressed as ratios of rate ratios [RRR] comparing cumulative counts of COVID-19 cases on Mar. 27, 2020, with cumulative counts on Mar. 20, 2020) and latitude, temperature, humidity, school closures, restrictions of mass gatherings, and measures of social distancing during an exposure period 14 days previously (Mar. 7 to 13, 2020). RESULTS: In univariate analyses, there were no associations of epidemic growth with latitude and temperature, but weak negative associations with relative humidity (RRR per 10% 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.96) and absolute humidity (RRR per 5 g/m3 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-0.99). Strong associations were found for restrictions of mass gatherings (RRR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.79), school closures (RRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.78) and measures of social distancing (RRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85). In a multivariable model, there was a strong association with the number of implemented public health interventions (p for trend = 0.001), whereas the association with absolute humidity was no longer significant. INTERPRETATION: Epidemic growth of COVID-19 was not associated with latitude and temperature, but may be associated weakly with relative or absolute humidity. Conversely, public health interventions were strongly associated with reduced epidemic growth.
Authors: Russell M Viner; Simon J Russell; Helen Croker; Jessica Packer; Joseph Ward; Claire Stansfield; Oliver Mytton; Chris Bonell; Robert Booy Journal: Lancet Child Adolesc Health Date: 2020-04-06
Authors: Adriana Peci; Anne-Luise Winter; Ye Li; Saravanamuttu Gnaneshan; Juan Liu; Samira Mubareka; Jonathan B Gubbay Journal: Appl Environ Microbiol Date: 2019-03-06 Impact factor: 4.792
Authors: Stephen A Lauer; Kyra H Grantz; Qifang Bi; Forrest K Jones; Qulu Zheng; Hannah R Meredith; Andrew S Azman; Nicholas G Reich; Justin Lessler Journal: Ann Intern Med Date: 2020-03-10 Impact factor: 25.391
Authors: Francesco Sera; Ben Armstrong; Sam Abbott; Sophie Meakin; Kathleen O'Reilly; Rosa von Borries; Rochelle Schneider; Dominic Royé; Masahiro Hashizume; Mathilde Pascal; Aurelio Tobias; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Antonio Gasparrini; Rachel Lowe Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2021-10-13 Impact factor: 14.919
Authors: Sachin Kumar; Alexandra Paul; Sayantan Chatterjee; Sabine Pütz; Natasha Nehra; Daniel S Wang; Arsalan Nisar; Christian M Jennings; Sapun H Parekh Journal: Biointerphases Date: 2021-01-28 Impact factor: 2.456
Authors: Cui Guo; Shin Heng Teresa Chan; Changqing Lin; Yiqian Zeng; Yacong Bo; Yumiao Zhang; Shakhaoat Hossain; Jimmy W M Chan; David W Yeung; Alexis K H Lau; Xiang Qian Lao Journal: Sci Total Environ Date: 2021-05-21 Impact factor: 7.963
Authors: Fazla Rabbi Mashrur; Amit Dutta Roy; Anisha Parsub Chhoan; Sumit Sarker; Anamika Saha; S M Naimul Hasan; Shumit Saha Journal: Clin Epidemiol Glob Health Date: 2021-06-27
Authors: Martí Català; Miquel Marchena; David Conesa; Pablo Palacios; Tomas Urdiales; Sergio Alonso; Enrique Alvarez-Lacalle; Daniel Lopez; Pere-Joan Cardona; Clara Prats Journal: Front Public Health Date: 2021-07-08
Authors: Uttpal Anand; Shweta Jakhmola; Omkar Indari; Hem Chandra Jha; Zhe-Sheng Chen; Vijay Tripathi; José M Pérez de la Lastra Journal: Front Immunol Date: 2021-06-30 Impact factor: 7.561
Authors: Maria A Zoran; Roxana S Savastru; Dan M Savastru; Marina N Tautan; Laurentiu A Baschir; Daniel V Tenciu Journal: Environ Res Date: 2021-08-06 Impact factor: 8.431