Positive predictive value of stroke identification by ambulance clinicians in North East England: a service evaluation.

INTRODUCTION/
BACKGROUND: Accurate prehospital identification of patients who had an acute stroke enables rapid conveyance to specialist units for time-dependent treatments such as thrombolysis and thrombectomy. Misidentification leads to patients who had a 'stroke mimic' (SM) being inappropriately triaged to specialist units. We evaluated the positive predictive value (PPV) of prehospital stroke identification by ambulance clinicians in the North East of England.
METHODS: This service evaluation linked routinely collected records from a UK regional ambulance service identifying adults with any clinical impression of suspected stroke to diagnostic data from four National Health Service hospital trusts between 1 June 2013 and 31 May 2016. The reference standard for a confirmed stroke diagnosis was inclusion in Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme data or a hospital diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack in Hospital Episode Statistics. PPV was calculated as a measure of diagnostic accuracy.
RESULTS: Ambulance clinicians in North East England identified 5645 patients who had a suspected stroke (mean age 73.2 years, 48% male). At least one Face Arm Speech Test (FAST) symptom was documented for 93% of patients who had a suspected stroke but a positive FAST was only documented for 51%. Stroke, or transient ischaemic attack, was the final diagnosis for 3483 (62%) patients. SM (false positives) accounted for 38% of suspected strokes identified by ambulance clinicians and included a wide range of non-stroke diagnoses including infections, seizures and migraine. DISCUSSION: In this large multisite data set, identification of patients who had a stroke by ambulance clinicians had a PPV rate of 62% (95% CI 61 to 63). Most patients who had a suspected stroke had at least one FAST symptom, but failure to document a complete test was common. Training for stroke identification and SM rates need to be considered when planning service provision and capacity. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.