Australia keeps a lid on covid-19 - for now.

EARLY signs suggest that Australia is beating the coronavirus, with the rate of new infections slowing for more than two weeks. But will the trend continue?

The number of new, confirmed covid-19 cases per day has been dropping in the country, from 460 cases on 28 March to 44 on 13 April. As of 14 April, there had been just more than 6300 confirmed cases, with 61 people dying from the virus so far and another 35 on ventilators.

The country's chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, said in a press conference on 7 April that the situation is better than the best-case scenario predicted by government modelling in January. However, he said, it “could all come undone” if Australians flout rules put in place to contain the virus.

Australia's pandemic response has centred on shutting borders, limiting public gatherings and conducting large-scale testing and contact tracing. Travelling overseas is banned, foreigners aren't allowed to enter the country and Australians who return from other countries are kept in mandatory quarantine at specially designated hotels for two weeks. Social gatherings of more than two people are also forbidden and leaving the house is permitted only for essential reasons like buying food and exercising.

Australia has tested more than 360,000 people for covid-19. When someone tests positive, their close contacts are tracked down and ordered to self-isolate for two weeks.

The main reason for Australia's success is probably its strict travel restrictions, says Adam Kamradt-Scott at the University of Sydney. About 70 per cent of Australians who have tested positive for covid-19 picked it up while they were overseas, he says, and being an island nation has made it easier to rapidly shut borders.

Social distancing, testing and contact tracing have added to the success, says Kamradt-Scott. Cultural factors may also have limited the virus's spread, like the fact that most Australians choose to live in separate dwellings rather than apartments.

Unlike many other countries, Australia has kept schools open, but these don't appear to have spread the virus so far, says Kathryn Snow at the University of Melbourne.

Despite these successes, Australia has also committed some major blunders. For example, 2700 passengers were allowed to disembark from the Ruby Princess cruise ship on 19 March, even though many were showing covid-19-like symptoms. More than 600 cases have now been linked back to the ship. Some Australians have also ignored social distancing recommendations and crammed onto beaches and into parks.

The government says it is looking at ways to ease restrictions, but won't make any decisions until it sees how the coming weeks pan out. One option under consideration is lifting restrictions in individual states or territories on a trial basis before applying the changes nationally.

At the moment, about 10 per cent of Australians who have caught the virus don't know how they got it, which is a sign of community spread. Although this is a small proportion, it could easily spiral out of control if restrictions are lifted too early and people are allowed to mix freely, says Hassan Vally at La Trobe University in Melbourne. “We cannot relax yet.”