Driving forces for carbon emissions changes in Beijing and the role of green power.

As one of the low carbon pilot cities in China, Beijing has announced that its carbon emissions will peak in 2020. In combating with this emission target, using the green power has becoming an important strategy in Beijing. Quantifying the effect of varies driving forces (including the adoption of green power) on carbon emissions will provide more accurate policy suggestions for carbon mitigation. Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this study 1) explore the driving forces of carbon emissions changes in Beijing during the 2010-2017 period, with special attention to the role of green power; 2) and analysis the emission reduction potential during the 2020-2030 period based on two scenarios. Results show that the main factor increasing carbon emissions in Beijing is the economic output effect, followed by the population scale effect; while the major factor decreasing carbon emissions is the energy intensity effect, followed by energy structure and emission factor effects. Beijing, characterized by gross energy consumption, has a high proportion of electricity which is transferred from other locations. In 2015, Beijing began to import green power, which has made a significant contribution to carbon reduction. Looking ahead to the future, imported green power is likely to become the most cost-effective means of reducing emissions. By harnessing green power, Beijing has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 30 million tons from 2020 to 2030, with an additional cost of about only 5 yuan/ton.