Tae Ik Chang1, Hyunsun Lim2, Cheol Ho Park3, Connie M Rhee4, Hamid Moradi5, Kamyar Kalantar-Zadeh5, Ea Wha Kang1, Shin-Wook Kang6, Seung Hyeok Han7. 1. Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Medical Center, Ilsan Hospital, Goyangshi, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea. 2. Department of Policy Research Affairs, National Health Insurance Service Medical Center, Ilsan Hospital, Goyangshi, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea. 3. Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 4. Harold Simmons Center for Kidney Disease Research and Epidemiology, University of California Irvine, School of Medicine, Orange, CA. 5. Harold Simmons Center for Kidney Disease Research and Epidemiology, University of California Irvine, School of Medicine, Orange, CA; Nephrology Section, Tibor Rubin Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Long Beach, CA. 6. Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Severance Biomedical Science Institute, Brain Korea 21 PLUS, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea. 7. Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: hansh@yuhs.ac.
Abstract
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Clinical practice guidelines recommend a target blood pressure (BP)<130/80 mm Hg to reduce cardiovascular risk. However, the optimal BP to prevent chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 10.5 million adults who participated in the National Health Insurance Service National Health Checkup Program in South Korea between 2009 and 2015 and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the beginning of follow-up. PREDICTORS: Baseline and time-updated systolic BP (SBP) as a continuous variable and categorized as<110, 110 to 119, 120 to 129, 130 to 139, or≥140 mm Hg. OUTCOME: Incident CKD GFR categories 3 to 5 (CKD G3-G5), defined as de novo development of estimated GFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 2 consecutive assessments confirmed at least 90 days apart. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards regression for baseline BP and marginal structural analysis for time-updated BP. RESULTS: During 49,169,311 person-years of follow-up, incident CKD G3-G5 developed in 172,423 (1.64%) individuals with a crude event rate of 3.51 (95% CI, 3.49-3.52) per 1,000 person-years. Compared to a baseline SBP of 120 to 129 mm Hg, HRs for incident CKD G3-G5 for the<110, 110 to 119, 130 to 139, and≥140 mm Hg categories were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85), 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.94), 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09-1.12), and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.28-1.31), respectively. For time-updated SBPs, corresponding HRs were 0.57 (95% CI, 0.56-0.59), 0.79 (95% CI, 0.78-0.80), 1.58 (95% CI, 1.55-1.60), and 2.49 (95% CI, 2.45-2.53), respectively. Treated as a continuous exposure, each 10-mm Hg higher SBP was associated with 35% higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5 (95% CI, 1.35-1.36). LIMITATIONS: Use of International Classification of Diseases codes to assess comorbid condition burden; residual confounding, and potential selection bias cannot be excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In this large national cohort study, higher SBPs were associated with higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5. These findings support evaluation of SBP-lowering strategies to reduce the development of CKD.
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Clinical practice guidelines recommend a target blood pressure (BP)<130/80 mm Hg to reduce cardiovascular risk. However, the optimal BP to prevent chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 10.5 million adults who participated in the National Health Insurance Service National Health Checkup Program in South Korea between 2009 and 2015 and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the beginning of follow-up. PREDICTORS: Baseline and time-updated systolic BP (SBP) as a continuous variable and categorized as<110, 110 to 119, 120 to 129, 130 to 139, or≥140 mm Hg. OUTCOME: Incident CKD GFR categories 3 to 5 (CKD G3-G5), defined as de novo development of estimated GFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 2 consecutive assessments confirmed at least 90 days apart. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards regression for baseline BP and marginal structural analysis for time-updated BP. RESULTS: During 49,169,311 person-years of follow-up, incident CKD G3-G5 developed in 172,423 (1.64%) individuals with a crude event rate of 3.51 (95% CI, 3.49-3.52) per 1,000 person-years. Compared to a baseline SBP of 120 to 129 mm Hg, HRs for incident CKD G3-G5 for the<110, 110 to 119, 130 to 139, and≥140 mm Hg categories were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85), 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.94), 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09-1.12), and 1.30 (95% CI, 1.28-1.31), respectively. For time-updated SBPs, corresponding HRs were 0.57 (95% CI, 0.56-0.59), 0.79 (95% CI, 0.78-0.80), 1.58 (95% CI, 1.55-1.60), and 2.49 (95% CI, 2.45-2.53), respectively. Treated as a continuous exposure, each 10-mm Hg higher SBP was associated with 35% higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5 (95% CI, 1.35-1.36). LIMITATIONS: Use of International Classification of Diseases codes to assess comorbid condition burden; residual confounding, and potential selection bias cannot be excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In this large national cohort study, higher SBPs were associated with higher risk for incident CKD G3-G5. These findings support evaluation of SBP-lowering strategies to reduce the development of CKD.