Literature DB >> 32288357

Modeling and forecasting of epidemic spreading: The case of Covid-19 and beyond.

Stefano Boccaletti1,2, William Ditto3, Gabriel Mindlin4, Abdon Atangana5,6.   

Abstract

Entities:  

Year:  2020        PMID: 32288357      PMCID: PMC7136889          DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109794

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Chaos Solitons Fractals        ISSN: 0960-0779            Impact factor:   5.944


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The Covid-19 pandemic is the most significant global crisis since the Second World War. Exceeding the size and range of the repercussions of a World War, it has affected all the Countries of our planet. The health consequences of the pandemic are devastating. To date the number of Covid-19 deaths exceeds 75,000 and is unfortunately destined to exponentially grow in the coming weeks. Furthermore, the pandemic has led to unprecedented social consequences and upheaval. It is estimated that more than 4 billion people (a half of the entire mankind) are today affected by drastic restrictions in their movements and social relationships. The pandemic has also triggered a global economic crisis, quite unlike those of the previous decades, whose shock will be felt for years to come. Already due to the pandemic the vast majority of our habits, trade, social and economic relations, methods, forms of work, and political organizations have already fundamentally changed. It is surprising that our governments, our social policies and our health systems were globally unprepared to manage such a situation, even though we all knew an impending pandemic was simply a matter of time – a time which has now arrived. Such abject lack of preparedness, from day one of the outbreak, is the main cause of the delays and inadequacies of our decisions and actions, taken at the local, national and international levels, to contain the virus. The large-scale spreading of viral or bacterial pathogens is to be considered among the main threats to humanity and society. This is just one reason why it is urgent that we act today. Here is a pressing and immediate need for the scientific community to come together and provide novel and better methods, strategies, forecasting techniques and models, to understand and mitigate the effects of this and future pandemics. Such advances are needed in both the short and longer term to inform effective and objective policies and strategies to be adopted. As editors of Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, a fundamentally interdisciplinary journal, we are deeply convinced that addressing epidemic spreading requires a broader scientific debate and a more profound interplay between the disparate scientific communities that have tried to tackle the problem so far. Indeed, we have identified at least three scientific communities that may auspiciously cooperate in the effort to deal more successfully with circumstances like the current pandemic – (1) the community of applied mathematicians, virologists and epidemiologists, who for years have been developing ever more sophisticated diffusion models which are increasingly attentive to the specific properties of a given pathogen; (2) the community of complex systems scientists who have approached the study of the spread of infections by means of compartmental models in networked populations, and used the arsenal of methods and principles borrowed from statistical mechanics and nonlinear dynamics; and (3) the community of scientists who are advancing science through the incorporation of artificial intelligence and deep learning, to produce successful and productive predictive models driven by vast amounts of data. Emboldened by our convictions and spirit, we propose to launch an open Focus Issue of Chaos, Solitons and Fractals dedicated to all aspects of epidemic spreading, with the aim of providing a unique (but desperately needed) forum where ideas, studies, concepts, methods arising from the applied mathematics, the virology, the epidemiology, the nonlinear science and the artificial intelligence communities can be shared and integrated, to enrich our global efforts for understanding and mitigating the effects of the current pandemic while enabling us to avoid the worst effects of future pandemics. We are strongly aware that such an initiative requires (in order to be attractive and inclusive) editorial procedures which have to be different from those adopted with regular submissions to the journal. We need to be nimble and timely! To ensure the maximal rapidity in the diffusion and dissemination results and ideas we propose to commit ourselves, as Guest Editors, to rapidly process, review and come to a decision on all submissions. We propose to reach the quickest decisions by the means of utilizing, as Referees, experts from the journal's editorial board. Moreover, in order to have all information instantly available for consultation, we decided to adopt a novel publication model: articles submitted to this Focus Issue will be published in regular issues of the Journal as soon as accepted, while the entire Focus Issue content will be brought together in an online special issue, easily accessible and navigable on ScienceDirect. The call for Manuscripts will close on September 31st, 2020, with a final online publication of the entire Focus Issue proposed for November, 2020. We hope you are able to enthusiastically embrace and approve our proposed Focus Issue so we can get started immediately!
  40 in total

1.  Multicriteria group decision making via generalized trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy number-based novel similarity measure and its application to diverse COVID-19 scenarios.

Authors:  Palash Dutta; Gourangajit Borah
Journal:  Artif Intell Rev       Date:  2022-09-07       Impact factor: 9.588

2.  Picture fuzzy set-based decision-making approach using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and grey relation analysis and its application in COVID-19 medicine selection.

Authors:  Amalendu Si; Sujit Das; Samarjit Kar
Journal:  Soft comput       Date:  2021-06-05       Impact factor: 3.643

3.  A novel fractional mathematical model of COVID-19 epidemic considering quarantine and latent time.

Authors:  Prashant Pandey; Yu-Ming Chu; J F Gómez-Aguilar; Hadi Jahanshahi; Ayman A Aly
Journal:  Results Phys       Date:  2021-05-19       Impact factor: 4.476

4.  Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease.

Authors:  Leonardo S Lima
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2021-06-09       Impact factor: 4.379

5.  Socio-demographic and health factors drive the epidemic progression and should guide vaccination strategies for best COVID-19 containment.

Authors:  Rene Markovič; Marko Šterk; Marko Marhl; Matjaž Perc; Marko Gosak
Journal:  Results Phys       Date:  2021-06-08       Impact factor: 4.476

6.  Weather indicators and improving air quality in association with COVID-19 pandemic in India.

Authors:  Rabin Chakrabortty; Subodh Chandra Pal; Manoranjan Ghosh; Alireza Arabameri; Asish Saha; Paramita Roy; Biswajeet Pradhan; Ayan Mondal; Phuong Thao Thi Ngo; Indrajit Chowdhuri; Ali P Yunus; Mehebub Sahana; Sadhan Malik; Biswajit Das
Journal:  Soft comput       Date:  2021-07-13       Impact factor: 3.732

7.  Hybrid harmony search algorithm for social network contact tracing of COVID-19.

Authors:  Ala'a Al-Shaikh; Basel A Mahafzah; Mohammad Alshraideh
Journal:  Soft comput       Date:  2021-06-28       Impact factor: 3.732

8.  Forecasting daily new infections, deaths and recovery cases due to COVID-19 in Pakistan by using Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models.

Authors:  Firdos Khan; Shaukat Ali; Alia Saeed; Ramesh Kumar; Abdul Wali Khan
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2021-06-17       Impact factor: 3.240

9.  Risk management for pandemics: a novel approach: "Hindsight is 20/20" English proverb.

Authors:  Ian G McKinley; Julia M West; Susie M L Hardie
Journal:  Sustain Sci       Date:  2021-07-09       Impact factor: 6.367

10.  Deep learning model for forecasting COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt.

Authors:  Mohamed Marzouk; Nehal Elshaboury; Amr Abdel-Latif; Shimaa Azab
Journal:  Process Saf Environ Prot       Date:  2021-07-24       Impact factor: 6.158

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