Quantitation of rate of wound closure and the prediction of death following major burns.

Data were obtained from 100 consecutive patients requiring hospitalization for 2 weeks or more for treatment of major burns. Age, total percentage burn, mechanism of injury, presence or absence of inhalation injury, and outcome were recorded. Serial weekly burn wound maps were used to calculate the wound closure index (WCI), previously defined as the slope of a straight line fitted to percentage burn as a function of time by linear regression analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct an equation incorporating age, percentage burn and WCI. Addition of the WCI significantly improved the discriminant ability of the logistic regression model. The composite index correctly predicted survival in 97 percent of patients. Rapid wound closure, as measured by the WCI, correlated with survival.