Identifying drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics in barley yellow dwarf virus epidemiology as a critical factor in disease control.

Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) is one of the most important viral diseases of small grains worldwide. An understanding of its epidemiology is crucial to control this disease in a sustainable way. The virus moves through the agricultural landscape via cereal aphids as vectors. Understanding movement of these aphids in space and time is of key importance and in doing so, the spatial and temporal variables that influence BYDV epidemiology can be identified. The presence of summer hosts, crop rotation, crop diversity, agricultural practices and climate variables are crucial. Through digitalization, spatial (e.g. land-use) and temporal (e.g. weather) information is becoming more readily available. Including this information into a prediction model could improve decision support systems that will rationalize the decision-making process towards a more integrated control of the disease.