| Literature DB >> 32240612 |
Rifat Atun1, Nickhill Bhakta2, Avram Denburg3, A Lindsay Frazier4, Paola Friedrich2, Sumit Gupta3, Catherine G Lam2, Zachary J Ward5, Jennifer M Yeh6, Claudia Allemani7, Michel P Coleman7, Veronica Di Carlo7, Eva Loucaides8, Elizabeth Fitchett9, Fabio Girardi7, Susan E Horton10, Freddie Bray11, Eva Steliarova-Foucher11, Richard Sullivan12, Joanne F Aitken13, Shripad Banavali14, Agnes Binagwaho15, Patricia Alcasabas16, Federico Antillon17, Ramandeep S Arora18, Ronald D Barr19, Eric Bouffet20, Julia Challinor21, Soad Fuentes-Alabi22, Thomas Gross23, Lars Hagander24, Ruth I Hoffman25, Cristian Herrera26, Tezer Kutluk27, Karen J Marcus28, Claude Moreira29, Kathy Pritchard-Jones9, Oscar Ramirez30, Lorna Renner31, Leslie L Robison32, Jaime Shalkow33, Lillian Sung3, Allen Yeoh34, Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo35.
Abstract
We estimate that there will be 13·7 million new cases of childhood cancer globally between 2020 and 2050. At current levels of health system performance (including access and referral), 6·1 million (44·9%) of these children will be undiagnosed. Between 2020 and 2050, 11·1 million children will die from cancer if no additional investments are made to improve access to health-care services or childhood cancer treatment. Of this total, 9·3 million children (84·1%) will be in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. This burden could be vastly reduced with new funding to scale up cost-effective interventions. Simultaneous comprehensive scale-up of interventions could avert 6·2 million deaths in children with cancer in this period, more than half (56·1%) of the total number of deaths otherwise projected. Taking excess mortality risk into consideration, this reduction in the number of deaths is projected to produce a gain of 318 million life-years. In addition, the global lifetime productivity gains of US$2580 billion in 2020-50 would be four times greater than the cumulative treatment costs of $594 billion, producing a net benefit of $1986 billion on the global investment: a net return of $3 for every $1 invested. In sum, the burden of childhood cancer, which has been grossly underestimated in the past, can be effectively diminished to realise massive health and economic benefits and to avert millions of needless deaths.Entities:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32240612 DOI: 10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30022-X
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Lancet Oncol ISSN: 1470-2045 Impact factor: 41.316