L Gao1, M Li1, Y Wang1, Z Zeng1, Y Xie2, G Liu1, J Li1, B Zhang1, X Liang1, L Wei3, X Yang4. 1. Reproductive Medicine Center, The Sixth Affiliate Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China. 2. Department of Andrology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510000, China. 3. Reproductive Medicine Center, The Sixth Affiliate Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China. weilinaly@126.com. 4. Reproductive Medicine Center, The Sixth Affiliate Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510655, China. yxing_8358@126.com.
Abstract
PURPOSE: The clinical outcome after in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is diverse in infertility patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on an association of patients' characteristics to predict the live birth rate in PCOS patients. METHODS: All women in a public university hospital who attempted to conceive by IVF/ICSI for PCOS infertility from January 2014 to October 2018 were included. The nomogram was built from a training cohort of 178 consecutive patients and tested on an independent validation cohort of 81 patients. PCOS was confirmed in all participants. RESULTS: Three variates significantly associated with live birth rate of PCOS patients were BMI, total serum cholesterol (TC) and basal FSH. This predictive model built on the basis of BMI, TC, basal FSH, type of embryo transferred and age showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.708 (95% CI 0.632-0.785) for the training cohort. The nomogram showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discrimination abilities in the independent validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.686 (95% CI 0.556-0.815). CONCLUSION: Our simple evidence-based nomogram presents graphically risk factors and prognostic models for IVF/ICSI outcomes in patients with PCOS, which can offer useful guidance to clinicians and patients for individual adjuvant therapy.
PURPOSE: The clinical outcome after in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is diverse in infertilitypatients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on an association of patients' characteristics to predict the live birth rate in PCOSpatients. METHODS: All women in a public university hospital who attempted to conceive by IVF/ICSI for PCOSinfertility from January 2014 to October 2018 were included. The nomogram was built from a training cohort of 178 consecutive patients and tested on an independent validation cohort of 81 patients. PCOS was confirmed in all participants. RESULTS: Three variates significantly associated with live birth rate of PCOSpatients were BMI, total serum cholesterol (TC) and basal FSH. This predictive model built on the basis of BMI, TC, basal FSH, type of embryo transferred and age showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.708 (95% CI 0.632-0.785) for the training cohort. The nomogram showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discrimination abilities in the independent validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.686 (95% CI 0.556-0.815). CONCLUSION: Our simple evidence-based nomogram presents graphically risk factors and prognostic models for IVF/ICSI outcomes in patients with PCOS, which can offer useful guidance to clinicians and patients for individual adjuvant therapy.