Kuan-Chou Lin1, Tsung-Ming Chen2, Kevin Sheng-Po Yuan3, Alexander T H Wu4, Szu-Yuan Wu5,6,7,8. 1. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. 2. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Shuang-Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. 3. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. 4. Program for Translational Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. 5. Department of Food Nutrition and Health Biotechnology, Asia University College of Medical and Health Science, Taichung, Taiwan. 6. Division of Radiation Oncology, Lo-Hsu Medical Foundation, Lotung Poh-Ai Hospital, Yilan, Taiwan. 7. Big Data Center, Lo-Hsu Medical Foundation, Lotung Poh-Ai Hospital, Yilan, Taiwan. 8. Department of Healthcare Administration, College of Medical and Health Science, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Abstract
Importance: There is currently no system to predict 90-day morality among patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) after the completion of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Objective: To validate the accuracy of a predictive scoring system for 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who have completed CCRT. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included 16 029 patients with HNSCC who completed CCRT between January 2006 and December 2015. Data were extracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database. A risk scoring system was developed based on significant risk factors and corresponding risk coefficients. Data analysis was conducted from June 2018 to February 2019. Exposures: Mortality within 90 days of completion of definitive CCRT. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 90-day mortality rate after completion of CCRT and the accuracy of the scoring system, based on a comparison of mortality rates between training and test data sets. Results: Among 16 029 patients with locally advanced HNSCC, 1068 (6.66%; 1016 [95.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 55.11 [11.45] years) died before reaching the 90-day threshold, and 14 961 (93.4%; 14 080 [94.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 52.07 [9.99] years) survived. Multivariable analysis revealed that being aged 50 years or older (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.263; 95% CI, 1.104-1.445; P < .001), being aged 70 years or older (aHR, 2.183; 95% CI, 1.801-2.645; P < .001), having pneumonia (aHR, 1.946; 95% CI, 1.636-2.314; P < .001), having sepsis (aHR, 3.005; 95% CI, 2.503-3.607; P < .001), having hemiplegia (aHR, 1.430; 95% CI, 1.085-1.884; P = .01), having moderate or severe renal disease (aHR, 2.054; 95% CI, 1.643-2.568; P < .001), having leukemia (aHR, 4.541; 95% CI, 1.132-8.207; P = .03), and having non-HNSCC metastatic solid cancers (aHR, 1.457; 95% CI, 1.292-1.644; P < .001) were significant risk factors for 90-day mortality. Risk scores were categorized as very low risk (score of 0), low risk (score 1-3), moderate risk (score 4-6), and high risk (score ≥7), with 90-day mortality rates of 3.37%, 5.00% to 10.98%, 16.15% to 29.13%, and 33.93% to 37.50%, respectively. Mortality rates for patients with the same risk score in the training and test data sets were similar (score of 0, 3.27% vs 3.66%; score of 6, 27.42% vs 25.00%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a 90-day mortality scoring system accurately predicted 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who completed CCRT.
Importance: There is currently no system to predict 90-day morality among patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) after the completion of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Objective: To validate the accuracy of a predictive scoring system for 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who have completed CCRT. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included 16 029 patients with HNSCC who completed CCRT between January 2006 and December 2015. Data were extracted from the Taiwan Cancer Registry Database. A risk scoring system was developed based on significant risk factors and corresponding risk coefficients. Data analysis was conducted from June 2018 to February 2019. Exposures: Mortality within 90 days of completion of definitive CCRT. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 90-day mortality rate after completion of CCRT and the accuracy of the scoring system, based on a comparison of mortality rates between training and test data sets. Results: Among 16 029 patients with locally advanced HNSCC, 1068 (6.66%; 1016 [95.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 55.11 [11.45] years) died before reaching the 90-day threshold, and 14 961 (93.4%; 14 080 [94.1%] men; mean [SD] age, 52.07 [9.99] years) survived. Multivariable analysis revealed that being aged 50 years or older (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.263; 95% CI, 1.104-1.445; P < .001), being aged 70 years or older (aHR, 2.183; 95% CI, 1.801-2.645; P < .001), having pneumonia (aHR, 1.946; 95% CI, 1.636-2.314; P < .001), having sepsis (aHR, 3.005; 95% CI, 2.503-3.607; P < .001), having hemiplegia (aHR, 1.430; 95% CI, 1.085-1.884; P = .01), having moderate or severe renal disease (aHR, 2.054; 95% CI, 1.643-2.568; P < .001), having leukemia (aHR, 4.541; 95% CI, 1.132-8.207; P = .03), and having non-HNSCC metastatic solid cancers (aHR, 1.457; 95% CI, 1.292-1.644; P < .001) were significant risk factors for 90-day mortality. Risk scores were categorized as very low risk (score of 0), low risk (score 1-3), moderate risk (score 4-6), and high risk (score ≥7), with 90-day mortality rates of 3.37%, 5.00% to 10.98%, 16.15% to 29.13%, and 33.93% to 37.50%, respectively. Mortality rates for patients with the same risk score in the training and test data sets were similar (score of 0, 3.27% vs 3.66%; score of 6, 27.42% vs 25.00%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a 90-day mortality scoring system accurately predicted 90-day mortality among patients with locally advanced HNSCC who completed CCRT.