Bastiaan Van Grootven1,2, Anthony Jeuris2, Maren Jonckers3, Els Devriendt4, Bernadette Dierckx de Casterlé2, Christophe Dubois3,5, Katleen Fagard2,4, Marie-Christine Herregods3,5, Miek Hornikx6, Bart Meuris3,5, Steffen Rex5,7, Jos Tournoy2,4, Koen Milisen2, Johan Flamaing2,4, Mieke Deschodt8,9. 1. Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO), Brussels, Belgium. 2. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 3. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 4. Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 5. Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 6. Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 7. Department of Anaesthesiology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 8. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. mieke.deschodt@kuleuven.be. 9. Department of Public Health, Institute of Nursing Science, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. mieke.deschodt@kuleuven.be.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Up to one in three of older patients who are hospitalised develop functional decline, which is associated with sustained disability, institutionalisation and death. This study developed and validated a clinical prediction model that identifies patients who are at risk for functional decline during hospitalisation. The predictive value of the model was compared against three models that were developed for patients admitted to a general medical ward. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was performed on two cardiac care units between September 2016 and June 2017. Patients aged 75 years or older were recruited on admission if they were admitted for non-surgical treatment of an acute cardiovascular disease. Hospitalisation-associated functional decline was defined as any decrease on the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living between hospital admission and discharge. Predictors were selected based on a review of the literature and a prediction score chart was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: A total of 189 patients were recruited and 33% developed functional decline during hospitalisation. A score chart was developed with five predictors that were measured on hospital admission: mobility impairment = 9 points, cognitive impairment = 7 points, loss of appetite = 6 points, depressive symptoms = 5 points, use of physical restraints or having an indwelling urinary catheter = 5 points. The score chart of the developed model demonstrated good calibration and discriminated adequately (C-index = 0.75, 95% CI (0.68-0.83) and better between patients with and without functional decline (chi2 = 12.8, p = 0.005) than the three previously developed models (range of C-index = 0.65-0.68). CONCLUSION: Functional decline is a prevalent complication and can be adequately predicted on hospital admission. A score chart can be used in clinical practice to identify patients who could benefit from preventive interventions. Independent external validation is needed.
BACKGROUND: Up to one in three of older patients who are hospitalised develop functional decline, which is associated with sustained disability, institutionalisation and death. This study developed and validated a clinical prediction model that identifies patients who are at risk for functional decline during hospitalisation. The predictive value of the model was compared against three models that were developed for patients admitted to a general medical ward. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was performed on two cardiac care units between September 2016 and June 2017. Patients aged 75 years or older were recruited on admission if they were admitted for non-surgical treatment of an acute cardiovascular disease. Hospitalisation-associated functional decline was defined as any decrease on the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living between hospital admission and discharge. Predictors were selected based on a review of the literature and a prediction score chart was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: A total of 189 patients were recruited and 33% developed functional decline during hospitalisation. A score chart was developed with five predictors that were measured on hospital admission: mobility impairment = 9 points, cognitive impairment = 7 points, loss of appetite = 6 points, depressive symptoms = 5 points, use of physical restraints or having an indwelling urinary catheter = 5 points. The score chart of the developed model demonstrated good calibration and discriminated adequately (C-index = 0.75, 95% CI (0.68-0.83) and better between patients with and without functional decline (chi2 = 12.8, p = 0.005) than the three previously developed models (range of C-index = 0.65-0.68). CONCLUSION: Functional decline is a prevalent complication and can be adequately predicted on hospital admission. A score chart can be used in clinical practice to identify patients who could benefit from preventive interventions. Independent external validation is needed.
Authors: Ana C M de Carvalho; Cristiano S Gomes; Karla V R S Menezes; Juliana Fernandes; Ingrid G Azevedo; Luana C A C Corrêa; Ricardo O Guerra Journal: Aging Clin Exp Res Date: 2021-08-30 Impact factor: 3.636
Authors: Juraj Sprung; Mariana Laporta; David S Knopman; Ronald C Petersen; Michelle M Mielke; Toby N Weingarten; Maria Vassilaki; David P Martin; Phillip J Schulte; Andrew C Hanson; Darrell R Schroeder; Prashanthi Vemuri; David O Warner Journal: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci Date: 2021-09-13 Impact factor: 6.053