Analysis of the spillover effect of energy intensity among provinces in China based on space-time lag model.

Based on inter-provincial energy intensity data in China from 1996 to 2016, using the model combining STIRPAT and dynamic SDM analyzes energy intensity and its influencing factors under the conditions of spatial lag, time lag, and space-time lag. Considering endogenous issues, it then explores the basic characteristics of energy intensity in space and its path dependence. The results show that spatial distribution of energy intensity in China is uneven and generally shows a pattern of decreasing from northwest to southeast. Energy intensity itself has a significant spillover effect, which can affect neighboring regions through pollution heaven effect and pollution halo effect. It can also be reduced as a result of the joint effect of driving factors. Economic development level, foreign direct investment, and technological progress have significant effects on reducing energy intensity, while industrial structure and urbanization rate increase it. The difference among driving factors lies in spatial spillover effect, and the short-term indirect effect is greater than the long-term one. Therefore, the key to realize China mode of green development is to promote factors of reducing energy intensity brought into full play and the inhibitory factors effectively controlled.