Temperature as a modifier of the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions in Cape Town, South Africa.

Climate change and air pollution are two independent risk factors to cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Few studies investigated their interaction and potential effect modification of one another in developing countries. Individual level CVD hospital admission (ICD10: I00-I99) data for 1 January 2011 to 31 October 2016 were obtained from seven private hospitals in Cape Town. NO2, SO2, PM10, temperature and relative humidity data were obtained from the South African Weather Services and the City of Cape Town. A case-crossover epidemiological study design and conditional logistic regression model were applied. Various cut-off values were applied to classify cold and warm days. In total, 54,818 CVD hospital admissions were included in the study. In general, on warm and cold days the 15-64 years old group was more at risk for CVD hospitalization with increasing air pollution levels compared to all ages combined or the ≥ 65 years old group. Females appeared to be more at risk than males with increasing PM10 levels. In contrast, males were more vulnerable to the effects of NO2 and SO2 than females. The study showed the modification effect of temperature on air pollution associated with CVD hospital admissions. The consideration of such interaction will help in policy making and public health interventions dealing with climate change-related health risks.