Mike Dolan Fliss1, Frank Baumgartner2, Paul Delamater3,4, Steve Marshall5,6, Charles Poole6, Whitney Robinson4,6. 1. Injury Prevention Research Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 521 S Greensboro St, Carrboro, NC, 27510, USA. mike.dolan.fliss@unc.edu. 2. Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 235 E Cameron Ave, Chapel Hill, NC, 27514, USA. 3. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Carolina Hall, CB# 3220, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA. 4. Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 123 W Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA. 5. Injury Prevention Research Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 521 S Greensboro St, Carrboro, NC, 27510, USA. 6. Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 170 Rosenau Hall, CB #7400 | 135 Dauer Drive, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Law enforcement traffic stops are one of the most common entryways to the US justice system. Conventional frameworks suggest traffic stops promote public safety by reducing dangerous driving practices and non-vehicular crime. Law enforcement agencies have wide latitude in enforcement, including prioritization of stop types: (1) safety (e.g. moving violation) stops, (2) investigatory stops, or (3) economic (regulatory and equipment) stops. In order to prevent traffic crash fatalities and reduce racial disparities, the police department of Fayetteville, North Carolina significantly re-prioritized safety stops. METHODS: Annual traffic stop, motor vehicle crash, and crime data from 2002 to 2016 were combined to examine intervention (2013-2016) effects. Fayetteville was compared against synthetic control agencies built from 8 similar North Carolina agencies by weighted matching on pre-intervention period trends and comparison against post-intervention trends. RESULTS: On average over the intervention period as compared to synthetic controls, Fayetteville increased both the number of safety stops + 121% (95% confidence interval + 17%, + 318%) and the relative proportion of safety stops (+ 47%). Traffic crash and injury outcomes were reduced, including traffic fatalities - 28% (- 64%, + 43%), injurious crashes - 23% (- 49%, + 16%), and total crashes - 13% (- 48%, + 21%). Disparity measures were reduced, including Black percent of traffic stops - 7% (- 9%, - 5%) and Black vs. White traffic stop rate ratio - 21% (- 29%, - 13%). In contrast to the Ferguson Effect hypothesis, the relative de-prioritization of investigatory stops was not associated with an increase in non-traffic crime outcomes, which were reduced or unchanged, including index crimes - 10% (- 25%, + 8%) and violent crimes - 2% (- 33%, + 43%). Confidence intervals were estimated using a different technique and, given small samples, may be asymmetrical. CONCLUSIONS: The re-prioritization of traffic stop types by law enforcement agencies may have positive public health consequences both for motor vehicle injury and racial disparity outcomes while having little impact on non-traffic crime.
BACKGROUND: Law enforcement traffic stops are one of the most common entryways to the US justice system. Conventional frameworks suggest traffic stops promote public safety by reducing dangerous driving practices and non-vehicular crime. Law enforcement agencies have wide latitude in enforcement, including prioritization of stop types: (1) safety (e.g. moving violation) stops, (2) investigatory stops, or (3) economic (regulatory and equipment) stops. In order to prevent traffic crash fatalities and reduce racial disparities, the police department of Fayetteville, North Carolina significantly re-prioritized safety stops. METHODS: Annual traffic stop, motor vehicle crash, and crime data from 2002 to 2016 were combined to examine intervention (2013-2016) effects. Fayetteville was compared against synthetic control agencies built from 8 similar North Carolina agencies by weighted matching on pre-intervention period trends and comparison against post-intervention trends. RESULTS: On average over the intervention period as compared to synthetic controls, Fayetteville increased both the number of safety stops + 121% (95% confidence interval + 17%, + 318%) and the relative proportion of safety stops (+ 47%). Traffic crash and injury outcomes were reduced, including traffic fatalities - 28% (- 64%, + 43%), injurious crashes - 23% (- 49%, + 16%), and total crashes - 13% (- 48%, + 21%). Disparity measures were reduced, including Black percent of traffic stops - 7% (- 9%, - 5%) and Black vs. White traffic stop rate ratio - 21% (- 29%, - 13%). In contrast to the Ferguson Effect hypothesis, the relative de-prioritization of investigatory stops was not associated with an increase in non-traffic crime outcomes, which were reduced or unchanged, including index crimes - 10% (- 25%, + 8%) and violent crimes - 2% (- 33%, + 43%). Confidence intervals were estimated using a different technique and, given small samples, may be asymmetrical. CONCLUSIONS: The re-prioritization of traffic stop types by law enforcement agencies may have positive public health consequences both for motor vehicle injury and racial disparity outcomes while having little impact on non-traffic crime.
Entities:
Keywords:
Crime; Disparity; Law enforcement; Motor vehicle crash; Policing; Public health critical race praxis; Race; Synthetic control; Traffic stop
Authors: Michael Dolan Fliss; Frank R Baumgartner; Paul Delamater; Steve W Marshall; Charles Poole; Whitney Robinson Journal: Inj Epidemiol Date: 2022-03-21
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