State Politics And The Uneven Fate Of Medicaid Expansion.

Under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), state governments play a central role in deciding whether millions of low-income Americans have access to Medicaid. During the early years of ACA implementation, conservative opposition stalled the expansion of eligibility for Medicaid in many Republican-controlled states, even in the face of strong fiscal incentives. Can any forces overcome this partisan divide? In this article we consider the role of several key mechanisms that have affected Medicaid expansion over the past decade, including electoral competition, ballot-box initiatives, interest-group coalitions, and entrepreneurial administrators. While each mechanism has helped place Medicaid expansion on the agenda, they have done so unevenly. In Republican-controlled states where electoral competition is weak and ballot initiatives are unavailable, Medicaid expansion remains unlikely. Even when expansion is successful at the ballot box, however, state legislatures and governors have been able to delay or reverse voter-led initiatives. Moreover, the highly salient and partisan nature of Medicaid expansion has made it difficult for interest-group coalitions and progressive administrators to play a leading role in policy change. The future of Medicaid expansion, as well as other significant portions of the ACA, will continue to depend on the character of representative democracy in the states.