| Literature DB >> 32089143 |
A von Laer1,2,3, M Diercke2, M An der Heiden2, D Altmann2, R Zimmermann2, S Dudareva2.
Abstract
Since 2015, the number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) cases increased substantially in Germany. In 2015, a more sensitive HBV case definition was introduced. This coincided with an asylum seeker influx with differing screening strategies. Information on the asylum seeker status has been collected since 09/2015. We investigated this increase to interpret HBV notification data in Germany. We compared HBV surveillance data from 2010-2013 (baseline) with 2015-2016, excluding 2014 due to beginning of asylum seeker influx. We estimated the excess above the mean case number (baseline) using Poisson regression and compared asylum seeker cases and the excess of cases with the unknown asylum seeker status. HBV cases increased from 1855 (mean baseline) to 3873 (2015) and 3466 (2016) with 1903 asylum seeker cases and 1099 excess-cases with the unknown asylum seeker status in 2015-2016. Cases only fulfilling the changed case definition increased from 60% (1119) in baseline to 81% (P < 0.01) in 2015-2016; 69% of asylum seeker cases and 61% of excess-cases were males <40 years compared to 27% (baseline) (P < 0.01). Changed case definition increased the number of cases in official statistics substantially. Demographic and geographical distributions suggest that screening of asylum seekers increased the case numbers even to a higher extent than surveillance data indicates.Entities:
Keywords: Epidemiological surveillance; Germany; hepatitis B; refugees
Year: 2020 PMID: 32089143 PMCID: PMC7058648 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268820000242
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Epidemiol Infect ISSN: 0950-2688 Impact factor: 2.451
Summary of hepatitis B case definitions in Germany before and since 2015
| Before 2015 | Since 2015 | |
|---|---|---|
| Laboratory criteria | Direct or indirect detection of HBV:
HBV-DNA confirmed HBs-Ag anti-HBc-IgM | Direct detection of HBV:
HBV-DNA confirmed HBs-Ag |
| Clinical criteria | Clinical signs of acute hepatitis | Not relevant |
| Case definition | ‘Clinical and Laboratory’:
clinically and laboratory-confirmed hepatitis B cases | ‘Clinical and Laboratory’:
clinically and laboratory-confirmed hepatitis B cases laboratory-confirmed hepatitis B cases without clinical confirmation laboratory-confirmed hepatitis B cases without information on clinical symptoms |
Fig. 1.Number of transmitted hepatitis B cases according to case definition, case definition category and year of notification during the transition phase of implementation of the new case definition since 2015, Germany 2010–2016. * Cases published in official statistics.
Fig. 2.Number of transmitted hepatitis B cases in 2010–2016 according to the asylum seeker status and the number of registered asylum seekers in Germany in 2015–2016 per quarter (due to the time delay in processing applications for asylum, asylum seekers were registered on arrival in Germany [15, 16, 20]).
Number of transmitted hepatitis B cases/100▫000 inhabitants for each federal state in 2010–2013, 2015 and 2016 according to the asylum seeker status, and difference in reporting incidence (total) Germany
| Hepatitis B reporting incidence | Difference to baseline | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal state | Mean 2010–2013 (baseline) | 2015 | 2016 | 2015 | 2016 | ||
| Total | Total | Asylum seeker cases (%) | Total | Asylum seeker cases (%) | Total | Total | |
| Hamburg | 2.9 | 36.3 | 64 | 8.9 | 61 | +33.4 | +6.0 |
| Bavaria | 2.6 | 8.2 | 27 | 7.2 | 48 | +5.6 | +4.6 |
| Saxony | 3.7 | 6.5 | 14 | 8.0 | 35 | +2.7 | +4.3 |
| Hesse | 3.3 | 6.1 | 7 | 6.3 | 16 | +2.8 | +3.0 |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 1.9 | 4.5 | 1 | 3.7 | 8 | +2.6 | +1.8 |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 0.9 | 2.2 | 5 | 2.9 | 14 | +1.3 | +2.0 |
| Baden-Wurttemberg | 1.9 | 3.0 | 5 | 3.5 | 23 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 2.0 | 3.3 | 21 | 3.2 | 48 | +1.4 | +1.2 |
| Brandenburg | 1.7 | 2.4 | 15 | 3.2 | 30 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 2.9 | 2.4 | 11 | 4.7 | 20 | −0.6 | +1.8 |
| Lower Saxony | 1.1 | 1.7 | 36 | 1.7 | 51 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 1.5 | 2.1 | 5 | 2.0 | 10 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| Berlin | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6 | 6.7 | 15 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Thuringia | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 0.7 | 38 | +0.2 | +0.0 |
| Saarland | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | +0.1 | −1.1 |
| Bremen | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.3 | 22 | −1.6 | −1.1 |
| Total | 2.3 | 4.7 | 22 | 4.2 | 30 | +2.5 | +2.0 |
Federal states that conducted hepatitis B screening in asylum seekers in 2015 [17–19, 22].
Fig. 3.Summary of expected number of cases in 2015–2016 with 95% prediction interval (PI) and real observed number of cases according to the asylum seeker status, Germany 2010–2016.
Comparison of demographics of excess cases with the unknown asylum seeker status, Germany 2010-2016.
| Sex | Age group (in years) | 2010–2013 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Total | 14 (41%) | 596 (78%) | 208 (62%) |
| <40 | 11 (32%) | 520 (68%) | 151 (45%) | |
| ≥40 | 3 (9%) | 76 (10%) | 57 (17%) | |
| Female | Total | 20 (59%) | 170 (22%) | 125 (38%) |
| <40 | 8 (24%) | 123 (16%) | 89 (27%) | |
| ≥40 | 12 (35%) | 47 (6%) | 36 (11%) | |
| Total | Total | 34 (100%) | 766 (100%) | 333 (100%) |