Meilin Yan1,2, Ander Wilson3, Jennifer L Peel1, Sheryl Magzamen1, Qinghua Sun4, Tiantian Li4, G Brooke Anderson1. 1. From the Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University. 2. Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China. 3. Department of Statistics, Colorado State University. 4. National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: On 21-22 July 2012, Beijing, China, suffered its heaviest rainfall in 60 years. Two studies have estimated the fatality toll of this disaster using a traditional surveillance approach. However, traditional surveillance can miss disaster-related deaths, including a substantial number of deaths from natural causes triggered by disaster exposure. Here, we investigated community-wide mortality risk during this flood compared with rates in unexposed reference periods. METHODS: We compared community-wide mortality rates on the peak flood day and the four following days to seasonally matched nonflood days in previous years (2008-2011), controlling for potential confounders, to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of daily mortality among Beijing residents associated with this flood. RESULTS: On 21 July 2012, the flood-associated RRs were 1.34 (95% confidence interval = 1.11, 1.61) for all-cause, 1.37 (1.01, 1.85) for circulatory, and 4.40 (2.98, 6.51) for accidental mortality, compared with unexposed periods. We observed no evidence of increased risk of respiratory mortality. For the flood period of 21-22 July 2012, we estimated a total of 79 excess deaths among Beijing residents; by contrast, only 34 deaths were reported among Beijing residents in a study using a traditional surveillance approach. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing community-wide changes in mortality rates during the 2012 flood in Beijing and one of the first to do so for any major flood worldwide. This study offers critical evidence on flood-related health impacts, as urban flooding is expected to become more frequent and severe in China.
BACKGROUND: On 21-22 July 2012, Beijing, China, suffered its heaviest rainfall in 60 years. Two studies have estimated the fatality toll of this disaster using a traditional surveillance approach. However, traditional surveillance can miss disaster-related deaths, including a substantial number of deaths from natural causes triggered by disaster exposure. Here, we investigated community-wide mortality risk during this flood compared with rates in unexposed reference periods. METHODS: We compared community-wide mortality rates on the peak flood day and the four following days to seasonally matched nonflood days in previous years (2008-2011), controlling for potential confounders, to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of daily mortality among Beijing residents associated with this flood. RESULTS: On 21 July 2012, the flood-associated RRs were 1.34 (95% confidence interval = 1.11, 1.61) for all-cause, 1.37 (1.01, 1.85) for circulatory, and 4.40 (2.98, 6.51) for accidental mortality, compared with unexposed periods. We observed no evidence of increased risk of respiratory mortality. For the flood period of 21-22 July 2012, we estimated a total of 79 excess deaths among Beijing residents; by contrast, only 34 deaths were reported among Beijing residents in a study using a traditional surveillance approach. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing community-wide changes in mortality rates during the 2012 flood in Beijing and one of the first to do so for any major flood worldwide. This study offers critical evidence on flood-related health impacts, as urban flooding is expected to become more frequent and severe in China.
Authors: Kevin U Stephens; David Grew; Karen Chin; Paul Kadetz; P Gregg Greenough; Frederick M Burkle; Sandra L Robinson; Evangeline R Franklin Journal: Disaster Med Public Health Prep Date: 2007-07 Impact factor: 1.385
Authors: Meilin Yan; Ander Wilson; Francesca Dominici; Yun Wang; Mohammad Al-Hamdan; William Crosson; Andrea Schumacher; Seth Guikema; Sheryl Magzamen; Jennifer L Peel; Roger D Peng; G Brooke Anderson Journal: Epidemiology Date: 2021-05-01 Impact factor: 4.822
Authors: Kate R Weinberger; Erin R Kulick; Amelia K Boehme; Shengzhi Sun; Francesca Dominici; Gregory A Wellenius Journal: Am J Epidemiol Date: 2021-10-01 Impact factor: 4.897