The effect of reproductive loss on the performance of a research flock.

The reproductive performance of a sheep flock is dependent on a multitude of complex interacting factors. Achieving optimal flock performance requires knowledge of the reproductive steps and how these are linked and related to available measurements of the state and performance of the flock. The goal was to use previously collected data from a research flock that had undergone selection for fecundity (11,369 lambing records), to model the key reproductive steps affecting flock reproductive performance. The model was used to investigate how changes in liveweight, age, ovulation rate, number of fetuses at midpregnancy, number of lambs born, and birthweight affect the number of lambs weaned and the weaning weight of each lamb in this flock. The data available from the research flock were used to parameterize models of each reproductive step and assess the role of ewe age and premating liveweight on each reproductive step. These models were then linked together as a simulation tool to assess the role of different parameters on flock reproductive performance, which was defined as the total weight of lambs weaned per ewe exposed to the ram. Flock elasticities were calculated that characterize the relative importance of the effect of average premating ewe liveweight (0.81), average ovulation rate (0.33), variance in ovulation rate (-0.095), embryo survival (0.72), lamb survival (1.03), conception failure (0.35), and average ewe age (0.056) on the total kilograms of lamb liveweight at weaning per ewe exposed to the ram. The largest elasticity for lamb survival indicated that a 1% increase in lamb survival is expected to have a 1.03% increase in the total kilograms of lamb liveweight at weaning per ewe exposed to the ram in this flock. Assuming similar costs, interventions to increase lamb survival for this flock will provide the largest increase in the total kilograms of lamb liveweight at weaning per ewe exposed to the ram, which is a key metric of flock performance.