Leon A Adams1, Stuart K Roberts2, Simone I Strasser3, Suzanne E Mahady4,5, Elizabeth Powell6, Chris Estes7, Homie Razavi7, Jacob George8. 1. University of Western Australia, Medical School, M503, QEII Medical Centre, Nedlands, WA, AUS. 2. The Alfred, Gastroenterology, Melbourne, VIC, AUS. 3. Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, AW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre, Camperdown, NSW, AUS. 4. Monash University, School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Clayton, VIC, AUS. 5. Royal Melbourne Hospital, Department of Gastroenterology, Melbourne, VIC, AUS. 6. Princess Alexandra Hospital, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Brisbane, QLD, AUS. 7. CDA, Lafayette, CO, USA. 8. University of Sydney, Medicine.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease burden in Australia through 2030. METHODS: A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. RESULTS: Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5,551,000 [4,748,000-6,306,000] cases in 2019) to 7,024,000 [5,838,000-7,886,000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1,900 (1,100-3,300) deaths in 2019 to 3,500 (2,100-6,100) deaths in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease burden in Australia through 2030. METHODS: A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. RESULTS: Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5,551,000 [4,748,000-6,306,000] cases in 2019) to 7,024,000 [5,838,000-7,886,000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1,900 (1,100-3,300) deaths in 2019 to 3,500 (2,100-6,100) deaths in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Authors: Patricia C Valery; Christina M Bernardes; Kelly L Hayward; Gunter Hartel; Katelin Haynes; Louisa G Gordon; Katherine A Stuart; Penny L Wright; Amy Johnson; Elizabeth E Powell Journal: BMC Gastroenterol Date: 2022-07-14 Impact factor: 2.847
Authors: Patricia C Valery; Elizabeth E Powell; Kelly Lee Hayward; Amy L Johnson; Leigh U Horsfall; Chris Moser Journal: BMJ Open Gastroenterol Date: 2021-02
Authors: Revathy Carnagarin; Kearney Tan; Leon Adams; Vance B Matthews; Marcio G Kiuchi; Leslie Marisol Lugo Gavidia; Gavin W Lambert; Elisabeth A Lambert; Lakshini Y Herat; Markus P Schlaich Journal: Int J Mol Sci Date: 2021-04-19 Impact factor: 5.923
Authors: Patricia C Valery; Elizabeth E Powell; Amy L Johnson; Kelly L Hayward; Preya Patel; Leigh U Horsfall; Alvin Ee Zhiun Cheah; Katharine M Irvine; Anthony W Russell; Katherine A Stuart; Sue Williams; Gunter Hartel Journal: Hepatol Commun Date: 2021-11-15
Authors: William De Nardo; Paula M Miotto; Jacqueline Bayliss; Shuai Nie; Stacey N Keenan; Magdalene K Montgomery; Matthew J Watt Journal: Mol Metab Date: 2022-04-02 Impact factor: 8.568